So many things to cover here:
1- In the past cycles, when 50 SMA crossed down with the 100 SMA on the weekly chart confirmed the bottom was in and we were around the middle ove the accumulation phases.
In 2015 and 2019, the price level of the cross was suprisingly close to the initial level of support holding bitcoin's price for a year before dropping 45% to reach the bottom.
This cycle, in 2022, the cross is much higher since the price spent much more time in higher price territory after the technical top of 64k.
The initial support this time is more around 30K.
2- In 2015 and 2019, the cross happend 64 weeks before the halvings. Now, we are a bit early at 77 weeks prior halving.
3- The moment of the 50/100 SMA cross have been indicating pretty much teh middle of the accumulation phase from the support breakdown to the same support then resistance breakup.
In 2015, price broke down 45% to a bottom support, 30 weeks before the cross then broke back up 30 to 34 weeks after the cross.
In 2019, price broke down 46% to a bottom support, 14 weeks before the cross then broke back up 11 weeks after the cross.
Now in 2022, price broke down 36% to a bottom support, 13 weeks before the cross and if we apply the same idea, the price could cross back up the 30k line around the first week of December.
4- I always considered that Bitcoin is in accumulation when the weekly RSI is below 40. We are on the edge of crossing it back up.
5- At the bottom is a custom indicator I made that give a total score combining MACD, Stoch and RSI. The score of 6 seems to be a good bottom zone indicator and we just crossed it up.
We'll see! :)
1- In the past cycles, when 50 SMA crossed down with the 100 SMA on the weekly chart confirmed the bottom was in and we were around the middle ove the accumulation phases.
In 2015 and 2019, the price level of the cross was suprisingly close to the initial level of support holding bitcoin's price for a year before dropping 45% to reach the bottom.
This cycle, in 2022, the cross is much higher since the price spent much more time in higher price territory after the technical top of 64k.
The initial support this time is more around 30K.
2- In 2015 and 2019, the cross happend 64 weeks before the halvings. Now, we are a bit early at 77 weeks prior halving.
3- The moment of the 50/100 SMA cross have been indicating pretty much teh middle of the accumulation phase from the support breakdown to the same support then resistance breakup.
In 2015, price broke down 45% to a bottom support, 30 weeks before the cross then broke back up 30 to 34 weeks after the cross.
In 2019, price broke down 46% to a bottom support, 14 weeks before the cross then broke back up 11 weeks after the cross.
Now in 2022, price broke down 36% to a bottom support, 13 weeks before the cross and if we apply the same idea, the price could cross back up the 30k line around the first week of December.
4- I always considered that Bitcoin is in accumulation when the weekly RSI is below 40. We are on the edge of crossing it back up.
5- At the bottom is a custom indicator I made that give a total score combining MACD, Stoch and RSI. The score of 6 seems to be a good bottom zone indicator and we just crossed it up.
We'll see! :)