Bitcoin Cycle Accumulation Zones -150W & 200W SMA
KEY CHART ITEM LEGEND
* TEAL LINE (LIGHT BLUE) - 200D SMA
* AQUA LINE (DARK GREEN) - 600D SMA
* GREY LINE - 150W SMA
* NAVY (DARK BLUE) LINE - 200W SMA
* Navy Box - Re accumulation Zone Time Frames
Historically during BTC cycles as measured from Bitcoin halvings, investor sentiment reaches over sold levels which have attracted long-term accumulation by investors.
We have observed so far in each cycle once the cycle All Time High (ATH) has been set in for BTC, price has become range bound and squeezed between the 200D SMA and the 600D SMA (see post 'A Critical Analysis of the 200D (Aqua) & 600D (Teal) SMA').
A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE 200D (AQUA) & 600D (TEAL) SMA
Once BTC has broken the 600D SMA, price migrates to the 150W SMA and eventually the 200W SMA which price then becomes range bound. This area for Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 have shown great accumulation opportunities for long term investment.
In each cycle to so far, the 150W SMA and the 200W SMA have done a good job at identifying this accumulation zone. These accumulation zone and the time in days we have spent in them for Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 are shown below and identified via the Navy Blue box in respective posts.
CYCLE 1 Accumulation Zone - Period ~ 291 Days
CYCLE 2 Accumulation Zone - Period ~ 131 Days
RE ACCUMULATION ZONE TIME FRAMES ANALYSIS - CYCLE 3 DUBIOUS SPECULATION
Observable in each cycle, we are seeing the time spent in the accumulation zone is diminishing each cycle (Cycle 1 = ~291 Days & Cycle 2 = ~131 Days).
In our current Cycle (Cycle 3), we are currently very close to the 150W SMA (wicking into it by not closing a daily or weekly candle below it on some exchanges).
Dubiously Applying the same parentage decrease to Cycle 3, we can expect if and when we enter this zone between the 150W and 200W SMAs again we could stay in this zone for 72 days.
It is worth noting that we entered this twice zone in Cycle 2 (wicking down to the 300W SMA - not shown) due to the COVID dump, and that the above analysis considers only our time spent in these zones that have also coincided with our cycle bottoms.
The COVID dump entry into this zone corresponded to 42 days. Worth noting this is considerably less than the estimated time extrapolated above of the next entry of 72 days (hence dubious at best), but it could also be considered a false entry with this analysis due to the abnormal affect COVID had on market cycles ('Black Swan Event').
If we consider the second entry into this zone in Cycle 2 during the COVID dump as valid, then applying the same % difference method from these two occurrences we could expect our next entry in the current cycle (Cycle 3) to last ~28 days.
Considering the above dubious calculations, then we could estimate the next time we enter this accumulation zone we may spend between ~28 to ~131 days range bound before breaking out of the zone.
Please use the content of this post for educational purposes only and feel free to comment your thoughts on the above below (not financial advice).
KEY CHART ITEM LEGEND
* TEAL LINE (LIGHT BLUE) - 200D SMA
* AQUA LINE (DARK GREEN) - 600D SMA
* GREY LINE - 150W SMA
* NAVY (DARK BLUE) LINE - 200W SMA
* Navy Box - Re accumulation Zone Time Frames
Historically during BTC cycles as measured from Bitcoin halvings, investor sentiment reaches over sold levels which have attracted long-term accumulation by investors.
We have observed so far in each cycle once the cycle All Time High (ATH) has been set in for BTC, price has become range bound and squeezed between the 200D SMA and the 600D SMA (see post 'A Critical Analysis of the 200D (Aqua) & 600D (Teal) SMA').
A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE 200D (AQUA) & 600D (TEAL) SMA
Once BTC has broken the 600D SMA, price migrates to the 150W SMA and eventually the 200W SMA which price then becomes range bound. This area for Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 have shown great accumulation opportunities for long term investment.
In each cycle to so far, the 150W SMA and the 200W SMA have done a good job at identifying this accumulation zone. These accumulation zone and the time in days we have spent in them for Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 are shown below and identified via the Navy Blue box in respective posts.
CYCLE 1 Accumulation Zone - Period ~ 291 Days
![Bitcoin Cycle Accumulation Zones -150W & 200W SMA [CYCLE 1]](https://s3.tradingview.com/0/0lltsEcb_big.png)
CYCLE 2 Accumulation Zone - Period ~ 131 Days
![Bitcoin Cycle Accumulation Zones -150W & 200W SMA [CYCLE 2]](https://s3.tradingview.com/x/xs9RO0IF_big.png)
RE ACCUMULATION ZONE TIME FRAMES ANALYSIS - CYCLE 3 DUBIOUS SPECULATION
Observable in each cycle, we are seeing the time spent in the accumulation zone is diminishing each cycle (Cycle 1 = ~291 Days & Cycle 2 = ~131 Days).
In our current Cycle (Cycle 3), we are currently very close to the 150W SMA (wicking into it by not closing a daily or weekly candle below it on some exchanges).
![Bitcoin Cycle Accumulation Zones -150W & 200W SMA [CYCLE 3]](https://s3.tradingview.com/y/YAbUFnds_big.png)
Dubiously Applying the same parentage decrease to Cycle 3, we can expect if and when we enter this zone between the 150W and 200W SMAs again we could stay in this zone for 72 days.
It is worth noting that we entered this twice zone in Cycle 2 (wicking down to the 300W SMA - not shown) due to the COVID dump, and that the above analysis considers only our time spent in these zones that have also coincided with our cycle bottoms.
The COVID dump entry into this zone corresponded to 42 days. Worth noting this is considerably less than the estimated time extrapolated above of the next entry of 72 days (hence dubious at best), but it could also be considered a false entry with this analysis due to the abnormal affect COVID had on market cycles ('Black Swan Event').
If we consider the second entry into this zone in Cycle 2 during the COVID dump as valid, then applying the same % difference method from these two occurrences we could expect our next entry in the current cycle (Cycle 3) to last ~28 days.
Considering the above dubious calculations, then we could estimate the next time we enter this accumulation zone we may spend between ~28 to ~131 days range bound before breaking out of the zone.
Please use the content of this post for educational purposes only and feel free to comment your thoughts on the above below (not financial advice).
