Here are the elements I see when I analyze Bitcoin halving for long-term investment in a monthly time period.
This is just a technical analysis by me. In the end, Bitcoin may or may not reach this level. But I will make my investment according to this analysis. My friends who think Bitcoin will drop to $0, please sell your Bitcoins because I will buy them.
- A bull run comes after every halving.
- First run 9784%; second run 3147%; The third run sent Bitcoin up 553%.
- When we apply Fibonacci correction to the bear market that came before the run, we can determine the point where the run will go. When we apply Fibonacci to the bear season in 2011, we see that the 3.618 level is $1344. In the run after the halvings, Bitcoin saw exactly this level. When we apply Fibonacci to the bear market that came in 2014 after the bull market, this time the level of 2.618 shows the level of $19728. In the bull run after the halving in 2016, we see that Bitcoin rose to this level. When we applied Fibonacci to the withdrawal in 2018, the 1.618 level showed the $47500 level. As expected, Bitcoin ran up to this level in the post-halving bull run. Now, when we apply Fibonacci to the bear market after 2021, we see that the 1.382 level indicates the $110091 level. What should be noted here is that in every bull run, Bitcoin rises to one less Fibonacci level. This is due to the logarithmic chart we use. Perhaps Bitcoin may rise to 1,618 or even 2,618 levels again in this halving, but I calculated it at 1,382 for a realistic analysis. You can also see other Fibonacci values on the chart.
- RSI peaks after every halving. However, these hills began to lag and lose their strength as time went by. According to the Fibonacci calculation we mentioned in the previous article, if the price will rise to 1.382, it is consistent for the RSI to peak lower than in 2021. However, if the rise is greater, this pattern will be disrupted and the RSI will make a higher peak. But the time when the peak will come will be approximately at the end of 2024 - the beginning of 2025.
- When the RSI is 50 and below, there have always been bottom times for Bitcoin. Therefore, we can say that it is the best time to buy Bitcoin when the RSI is around this level.
- After seeing the bottom, Bitcoin rises by finding support at the Fibonacci levels of the rise. For example, when we apply Fibonacci to the 2012 rise, we see that Bitcoin retreated to the 0.372 level and then started to run by finding support at 0.236. After the run in 2016, Bitcoin Fibonacci retreated to 0.5, then rose and found support at 0.382, starting the bull season. After the run in 2020, Bitcoin retreated to 0.618, which is one lower level than the previous run, and now we expect it to find support at 0.5. This means that Bitcoin has the potential to reach the $20,000 level, and a withdrawal to this level will not be a decline, but will find support and start the bull season.
This is just a technical analysis by me. In the end, Bitcoin may or may not reach this level. But I will make my investment according to this analysis. My friends who think Bitcoin will drop to $0, please sell your Bitcoins because I will buy them.