MarcusAu

BTC July-August consolidation and Sep-Dec 2019 rally to 20000

Long
MarcusAu Updated   
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin

The 35% correction from 14000 to 9000 in July is Wave 2 of the grand bitcoin Wave V. Looking at the ascending fibonacci channel, we can clearly see that BTC has approached the 0.236 channel line resistance at 8300, dropped quickly to 6200, up again and challenged 0.236 resistance line again at 9100. Failing to break above, BTC dropped from 9100 to 7500, then finally gathered enough energy to break above 0.236 line and only stopped very close to the 0.382 line at 14000. The fundamentals of BTC is very good and promising, more and more users are adopting it, hash rate is increasing, and the 0.236 line seems to hold pretty well, therefore I don't see any strong possibility of Bitcoin dropping significantly below 9000.

Now, BTC has dropped from 0.382 line to the 0.236 line, which serves as a support line now because it has been firmly broken. Considering that July and August has historically been some kind of slow months for BTC, I see BTC might rise from 10000 and challenge the 12000 and 13000 resistance. It might fail to break above those two resistance levels, retreat to 10000 or 11000 and consolidate for a couple of weeks, then rally to 20000 from September to December 2019. November and December are usually big movements for BTC, which means BTC could be stopped by the 20000 resistance temporarily, or it could create a new All Time High by the end of 2019. Either way, there could very possibly be another 20-40% correction in November, December 2019 and January 2020.
Trade active:

BTC consolidating around 0.236 line of the short term descending channel, might go to 12000 again and retest the channel line resistance.
Comment:
MACD bullish divergence on 12-hour chart?
Comment:
Bounced up from 0.236 channel line, testing 0.382 resistance, might break out soon because 12-hour MACD looks very bullish
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