MarcusAu

MarcusAu

Investors are scared by the seemingly never-stopping bond yield rally and US bond crash. The expected Israeli ground offensive has been delayed, creating more uncertainty and selling pressure. As US10Y and AGG have started dropping since 26 Oct 2023, IXIC is poised to recover when investors realise that the bond yield rally is not infinite and holding 100% bond...

MarcusAu

IXIC has been dropping quickly due to rising bond yield e.g. US10Y and US30Y and rising volatility. Volatility is often a self-fulfilling prophecy, as many funds automatically sell when volatility rises above certain threshold, creating more volatility and causing other investors to sell. However, the big picture remains bullish because the overall market...

MarcusAu

This bear trap is too obvious. Now that most investors know the recession story of June 2022 was fake and irrational, there's really no basis for the major stock indexes to go much lower. However, there's probably more consolidation between 11600 and 12600 in September, as October is perceived as the traditional bearish month and investors keep panicking about...

MarcusAu Updated 

The investors have been panicking about rate hike, Russian war, oil price, inflation and recession for a couple of months. Recently the traditional 'collapse after rate hike' has become 'panic before rate hike, rally after rate hike'. This is because the fed has been more communicative about the rate hike, and the market is full of investors who try to be the...

MarcusAu Updated 

Nasdaq Composite is in extreme panic mode right now, the investors seem to have perceived the possible Russia-Ukraine War as an end-of-world scenario. They have clearly forgotten that major wars have mostly been beneficial for American stocks, e.g. how WW2 made DJIA skyrocket. Moreover, the coming rate hike at 16 Mar 2022 will definitely scare a lot of investors...

MarcusAu

IXIC is testing the 100-day moving average. Investors are worrying about the rising American bond yield and the potential of government shutdown. The American government has experienced temporary shutdown multiple times in the past, so in the long run it's not a big deal. For the short term, IXIC might drop to 14200, testing the old 16 Feb 2021 resistance line,...

MarcusAu

I have to highlight that, the American stock market in 2021 is fundamentally different from the market in 2018 or 2019. Unprecedented amount of new investors have jumped into the stock market since April 2020, lured by zero commission brokers, close to zero interest rate and the boredom of COVID restrictions. Like I have mentioned before, the period of 2020-2025...

MarcusAu

Nasdaq Composite has just finished or about to finish the Wave 2 correction of the larger Wave (3) of the larger Wave 5. Some may identify the 2 Sep to 9 Nov 2020 correction as a triangle, but triangles usually appear in the later part of a larger wave, like the second half of wave 3 or wave 4 or in the case of diagonal triangle, wave 5. This is obviously the...

MarcusAu Updated 

Look at this boi, Nasdaq Composite has gone up almost 80% since testing the 50-month moving average in March 2020. This demonstrates how strongly bullish the market fundamentals are, remember Fed confirmed on yesterday 27 Aug 2020 that they will tolerate higher than usual inflation, just to keep the interest rate close to zero! Basically Fed and Donald Trump (he...

MarcusAu

Dangerous rising wedge here, this is usually followed by a surprisingly sharp correction, taking some greedy investors off guard. I don't think IXIC will rise to 10300 this month, the top of the fibonacci ascending channel I mentioned in previous ideas. The previous all time high, 9800 to 10100 is very strong resistance, so 11000 is very unlikely before some...

MarcusAu

Like I said in previous articles, investors finally realised corona virus is not end of humanity, the resulting panic buying pushed Dow Jones above 24000, already recovered more than half of the losses since February 2020. If we look at the DJI chart from January 2018 to 2020, we can see this looks quite similar to a 'diamond' pattern which usually occurs after...

MarcusAu

In my July 2019 analysis, I assumed ASX 200 was going through a Wave 3 and will go up to 8300 in a year. However, XJO failed epically, it did not even come close to the 1.618 projection at 8300, when the American stocks were strongly bullish. During the February and March 2020 corona virus panic, XJO dropped much more than Nasdaq Composite and some other American...

MarcusAu Updated 

Recently Nasdaq Composite has been dropping quickly alongside other major stock indexes. Here is a very obvious ending diagonal in Waves Theory, or 'falling wedge' as technical analysts call it. This kind of fast price decreasing coupled with narrowing space of bounce back is caused by extreme panic selling, which will turn into panic buying once investors...

MarcusAu

In today's foreign exchange markets, the WXY wave pattern comprised of mostly 3 wave structures is more common than the typical 5 wave up, 3 wave down structure for stock markets. This is because foreign exchange don't have an inherent trend of 'always going up' in the long term. In fact, you could say some currencies are possibly doomed to fail in the long term...

MarcusAu

Donald Trump announced a 30-day travel ban for Europe, which ignited another bout of panic selling. Honestly, I think the market is overacting a bit here. Between 1918 and 1919 the spanish flu killed more than 20 million people, but Dow Jones mostly went up, in 2020 the corona virus killed less than 10000 and the market is dropping nonstop? Some people say travel...

MarcusAu

Huge amount of panic is driving global markets down, IXIC will drop to some strong psychological support before coming back up again. Looking at monthly chart, 20 month moving average is roughly 8000, 100 week moving average is 7900, so 7900-8000 is very possibly the price level where this short term downtrend will reverse. In extreme case of panic, IXIC may...

MarcusAu

Gold has failed to break above the 0.618 resistance line at 1587 since 8 January 2020. It tried a couple of times to go higher, but repetitively failed to stay above 1587. This paints a grim picture for the mid term prospect of gold, especially considering that US stock market is far from the end of its massive bullish trend. Even the dreaded corona virus is not...

MarcusAu Updated 

Nasdaq Composite is going through Wave 3 of the primary Wave 5. As often happened in the fibonacci channel which started from September 2011, IXIC will very likely rally up to 9800, to the top line of the channel in February or March. From there it will possibly drop to 9200, rise again to 10000, down again, rinse and repeat a couple of times, providing abundant...