Good morning, traders. Bitcoin attempted to push above $3950 this weekend but could not make it happen. As I have been mentioning, there is strong resistance up toward $4000 and overcoming it won't be a walk in the park. Last night's downward move bounced off the daily 21 EMA, finding support on the HVN. An H1 gap was created around $3888 and RSI just bounced off oversold. H4 price is printing higher lows between March 8th and today while RSI is printing lower lows. This all suggests some temporary bottoming and a move up toward $3900 at the least.
If we take a look at the H4 channels we can see price attempting to push through the horizontal TR's resistance. Price moved up with four touches on the ascending channel's support. Since the Friday high, it has moved within the descending channel inside it, with some sideways actions happening between the resistance levels of the two horizontal channels. If we see price close above $3900 then we should see it target the ascending channel's resistance. With the H4 RSI touching its descending channel support, and price finding support on the HVN/D1 21 EMA as well as bouncing off the D3 support level, it makes more sense for price to move up from here rather than down. We can also see a bullish hammer printing on the H4 TF signifying a likely reversal. Traders should be cautious around the Friday $3950.25 swing high as price needs to close above it before it can target the mid-$4100s/H4 R2 pivot and nearby swing high of $4190.
March 10th saw the daily MACD rejected at the bullish cross. The ascending channel on the D1 chart shows price's possible path toward a double top at the ATH descending resistance. The truth is, there are many paths, down and up, that price can take at this time and many retail traders will lose a lot of money attempting to trade the noise in this area. Lack of patience permeates the retail trading sphere spurred on by emotional get-rich-quick overnight millionaire thoughts. Traders that insist on day trading this level should be much more intent on locking in profits earlier and completing shorter term trades. Those looking to buy in for a longer term run toward $5000 or more are best served by closing the chart once they buy and not looking at it again for a few weeks at least.
Finally, as some of you may be aware by now, Binance has scheduled maintenance planned for tomorrow. I have seen "analysis" suggesting that since price dropped through the $6000 level soon after the November 12th Binance maintenance, that price will drop this time as well. While it's always possible, the glaring difference that immediately occurs to me is that price was sitting on support at that time while it is now sitting at resistance. If the same manipulation storyline is followed, then logically it would suggest a push through resistance not a drop in price.
If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
If we take a look at the H4 channels we can see price attempting to push through the horizontal TR's resistance. Price moved up with four touches on the ascending channel's support. Since the Friday high, it has moved within the descending channel inside it, with some sideways actions happening between the resistance levels of the two horizontal channels. If we see price close above $3900 then we should see it target the ascending channel's resistance. With the H4 RSI touching its descending channel support, and price finding support on the HVN/D1 21 EMA as well as bouncing off the D3 support level, it makes more sense for price to move up from here rather than down. We can also see a bullish hammer printing on the H4 TF signifying a likely reversal. Traders should be cautious around the Friday $3950.25 swing high as price needs to close above it before it can target the mid-$4100s/H4 R2 pivot and nearby swing high of $4190.
March 10th saw the daily MACD rejected at the bullish cross. The ascending channel on the D1 chart shows price's possible path toward a double top at the ATH descending resistance. The truth is, there are many paths, down and up, that price can take at this time and many retail traders will lose a lot of money attempting to trade the noise in this area. Lack of patience permeates the retail trading sphere spurred on by emotional get-rich-quick overnight millionaire thoughts. Traders that insist on day trading this level should be much more intent on locking in profits earlier and completing shorter term trades. Those looking to buy in for a longer term run toward $5000 or more are best served by closing the chart once they buy and not looking at it again for a few weeks at least.
Finally, as some of you may be aware by now, Binance has scheduled maintenance planned for tomorrow. I have seen "analysis" suggesting that since price dropped through the $6000 level soon after the November 12th Binance maintenance, that price will drop this time as well. While it's always possible, the glaring difference that immediately occurs to me is that price was sitting on support at that time while it is now sitting at resistance. If the same manipulation storyline is followed, then logically it would suggest a push through resistance not a drop in price.
If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.