BTCUSD: Update, CME is the driving force here...
I found the culprit of my confusion regarding the last upswing in $BTCUSD, the spot chart has become unreliable compared to the CME futures chart, at least when it comes to Time@Mode analysis. Finer details of how weekly bar ranges look, impact the analysis outcome. I missed a signal indicating that we could go long, like 4 weeks ago, and given sentiment didn't think it made sense to get a signal targeting new all time highs either. In the CME chart we see a clearly expired monthly trend, and a clean weekly down swing which has panned out. As well as a new weekly upswing currently taking place. I suspect the outcome of regulatory uncertainty will be that price remains sideways/down and price doesn't make new highs for a long time. Regulations won't come into play after 2023, so perhaps a bit before that, the market will move out of this sideways state. It is unclear when we will have more clarity regarding the final decision in the infrastructure bill, but market participants will be monitoring it closely.
I think my main long term view is correct, that a long term trend ended, and now we either go sideways or down for a similar amount of time as previous bear markets, roughly until April 2022, this is also in line with expectations from monthly T@M signals in the CME chart here presented. As for the daily and weekly uptrend, there is a big resistance cluster above, and a weekly level that should hold, around 50k. I don't think price can jump over that barrier easily.
Daily trend expires by Friday, weekly expires in two more Fridays after. Let's keep an eye on developments here, I anticipate this market will be driven by institutional portfolio managers rebalancing, which likely will contribute to price being stuck in a sideways range until there is regulatory clarity in the future. This will also help sentiment cool down, as it is I can't fathom price going into a steady uptrend and reaching 80-100k or whatever.
I hope you feel as relieved as me, after figuring out this puzzle. Take it easy, we will have a ton of time to analyze and think about this market's trend. Price won't deviate far, specially not up, I am pretty sure of that now. Even more so than before.
We can trade the daily signals as they form, up and down, but definitely don't fomo in and buy all in and expect unreasonable moves (same can be said for shorting, trade small or don't trade).
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
I think my main long term view is correct, that a long term trend ended, and now we either go sideways or down for a similar amount of time as previous bear markets, roughly until April 2022, this is also in line with expectations from monthly T@M signals in the CME chart here presented. As for the daily and weekly uptrend, there is a big resistance cluster above, and a weekly level that should hold, around 50k. I don't think price can jump over that barrier easily.
Daily trend expires by Friday, weekly expires in two more Fridays after. Let's keep an eye on developments here, I anticipate this market will be driven by institutional portfolio managers rebalancing, which likely will contribute to price being stuck in a sideways range until there is regulatory clarity in the future. This will also help sentiment cool down, as it is I can't fathom price going into a steady uptrend and reaching 80-100k or whatever.
I hope you feel as relieved as me, after figuring out this puzzle. Take it easy, we will have a ton of time to analyze and think about this market's trend. Price won't deviate far, specially not up, I am pretty sure of that now. Even more so than before.
We can trade the daily signals as they form, up and down, but definitely don't fomo in and buy all in and expect unreasonable moves (same can be said for shorting, trade small or don't trade).
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
I've been through the 2013 and 2017 tops. Most people now haven't, and the ones that bag held are rewarded by a false sense of security and simply bragging about money made or buying NFTs...
There is a new breed of market participants, who are making this game more competitive now, the easy TA stuff won't work too well anymore, it already started to work worse since CME future came out.
Before people were making easy money in crypto with simple methods. I suspect we will go into a more transformative and longer bear market, perhaps one that rewards trading in and out, more like gold after the 2011 top.
Definitely interesting to see this evolve. For now I think the best bet is to not marry any position you take, and simply trade the local intraday or daily signals. Don't hodl after getting a buy signal, get out when targets are hit, or the time duration you expected for the move is done.
In general long trades can pay more than shorts, unless the market is mostly range bound, so, probably ok to trade both sides in general, as long as you manage risk.
As for the chart outlook here, it is still potentially holding up until the end of August...Sadly I missed a buying opportunity, but there's nothing else to do here, reward to risk wise, and probability wise, buying now is a dumb idea, even if it somehow works.
There is a new breed of market participants, who are making this game more competitive now, the easy TA stuff won't work too well anymore, it already started to work worse since CME future came out.
Before people were making easy money in crypto with simple methods. I suspect we will go into a more transformative and longer bear market, perhaps one that rewards trading in and out, more like gold after the 2011 top.
Definitely interesting to see this evolve. For now I think the best bet is to not marry any position you take, and simply trade the local intraday or daily signals. Don't hodl after getting a buy signal, get out when targets are hit, or the time duration you expected for the move is done.
In general long trades can pay more than shorts, unless the market is mostly range bound, so, probably ok to trade both sides in general, as long as you manage risk.
As for the chart outlook here, it is still potentially holding up until the end of August...Sadly I missed a buying opportunity, but there's nothing else to do here, reward to risk wise, and probability wise, buying now is a dumb idea, even if it somehow works.
Comment:
Another signal, extends daily upside and time, matches timing for the weekly signal, which is coherent, I expect this to top by end of the month.
Trade active:
Looks like a reversal is setting up now:
Comment:
I'm long $ETHUSD, but short $BTCUSD, such is the state of chart signals in both assets. I have no idea outside of the scope of these signals, which tells me only about the possible immediate future within the next 2-3 weeks or so.
Trade active:
Long term signal active here...
Comment:
Comment:
Follow the infrastructure bill and the regulatory bs included in it here.
Crypto lobbyists are doing their best to fight this but so far losing.