Given the recent price action, thought will look at the bigger trend - created my own set of trendlines rather following a pitchfork.
Few observations:
1. Price action is getting less and less parabolic - which actually is a good thing.
2. Recent price action was stopped at of 'one' of the longer term trendline.
3. In 2019, we did establish another trendline, which I think will be retested in the coming week (or not?).
4. Based on Heikin Ashi, eerily similar price action can be seen as once BTC comes out of local bear trend and produces few green months, it doesn't deliver consecutive red months. All these single red months are 3 years 1 month apart. If normal candles, only in 2012-13, it had 3 consecutive red months (like right now) and resumed bull trend. Either way, Oct. has to be green or flat for BTC to hold that trend.
5. Even if we break current trend, I believe that yearly low will hold and we will again retest 2019 support trendline as resistance next year.
Q4 2019 will define what BTC does in 2020 - bulls would want it to consolidate here (higher 7s / 8s) or successfully defend support in higher 6s and consolidate above the trendline to resume trend going into 2020.
Plenty of other scenarios at play, which I tried to depict through price points.
If you take into account macroeconomic uncertainity and hoopla around digital currencies, BTC could be the true call option, however, it comes with its own risk. Best is to have patience and decide if you want exposure or not. If you do, you've to be mentally ready to have a significant long term outlook (2025+). The volatility can keep you awake at night (I speak from experience :))
I'm neither a bull nor bear, but fascinated by this market! It has created a new category in itself and brought the conversation about macroeconomics and various governments' role in it a little more mainstream.
P.S. - This is an analysis for my own purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Few observations:
1. Price action is getting less and less parabolic - which actually is a good thing.
2. Recent price action was stopped at of 'one' of the longer term trendline.
3. In 2019, we did establish another trendline, which I think will be retested in the coming week (or not?).
4. Based on Heikin Ashi, eerily similar price action can be seen as once BTC comes out of local bear trend and produces few green months, it doesn't deliver consecutive red months. All these single red months are 3 years 1 month apart. If normal candles, only in 2012-13, it had 3 consecutive red months (like right now) and resumed bull trend. Either way, Oct. has to be green or flat for BTC to hold that trend.
5. Even if we break current trend, I believe that yearly low will hold and we will again retest 2019 support trendline as resistance next year.
Q4 2019 will define what BTC does in 2020 - bulls would want it to consolidate here (higher 7s / 8s) or successfully defend support in higher 6s and consolidate above the trendline to resume trend going into 2020.
Plenty of other scenarios at play, which I tried to depict through price points.
If you take into account macroeconomic uncertainity and hoopla around digital currencies, BTC could be the true call option, however, it comes with its own risk. Best is to have patience and decide if you want exposure or not. If you do, you've to be mentally ready to have a significant long term outlook (2025+). The volatility can keep you awake at night (I speak from experience :))
I'm neither a bull nor bear, but fascinated by this market! It has created a new category in itself and brought the conversation about macroeconomics and various governments' role in it a little more mainstream.
P.S. - This is an analysis for my own purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.