As with every bearish cycle, panic is reigning in the crypto world right now. And for this very reason it seems appropriate to make this analysis that, hopefully, will shed a ray of sunlight on the fearful ones. Since there is a lot to work with, I will divide the analysis into 3 parts (please note that this is macrocyclical trend analysis but fundamental analysis has not been considered).
The material in this publication has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any viewer. This publication is presented solely for informational and entertainment purposes and is not to be construed as a recommendation, solicitation or an offer to buy or sell / long or short any securities, commodities, cryptocurrencies or any related financial instruments. Nor should any of its content be taken as investment advice. Trading and investing is extremely high risk and can result in the loss of all of your capital. Any opinions expressed in this publication are subject to change without notice.
1) Cycle Duration: Bearish cycle & Bullish cycle
2) Bear cycle bottom & Current bear market correction
3) Bull cycle top & Next bull cycle gains
1) Cycle Duration
Bearish cycle: If we measure the duration of the previous bearish cycles, we can see that the 1st cycle lasted around 150 days, the 2nd cycle lasted around 640 days, and the 3rd one lasted near 820 days. If we average them we can estimate a duration of 550 days for the current bearish cycle. As a result, we can infer a high degree of probability that we'll touch the bottom within the 4th quarter of 2022.
Bullish cycle: If we measure the number of days between the maximums of each cycle, we obtain an average of 1180 days. With this result we can infer that the next cycle top will be around June 2024. On the other hand, measuring the duration of the bullish cycle of each macro cycle, we obtain an average of 600 days per cycle. Which allows us to forecast that the next bullrun will be between the 4th quarter of 2022 and the end of 2023 1st semester.
2) Bear cycle bottom & Current bear market correction
Bear cycle bottom: The first bitcoin correction was about 93%, the 2nd one was near 85%, and the 3rd one was arround 83%. On average, bitcoin corrections have been reducing by 5 points per cycle, so we can infer that the current correction can reach approximately 73%. The price bottom we obtain with these calculations is roughly $14,000
3) Bull cycle top & Next bull cycle gains
Bull cycle top: As in all markets, as the market capitalization of an asset increases, the amount of money that needs to be injected to produce a significant price movement also increases. Therefore, in percentage terms, we can expect the profit level of the next bullrun to be lower than the previous one. In total terms, the 1st bullrun saw a rise of around 52,000%, the 2nd bullrun rise was close to 12,000%, while the 3rd rise was close to 2,000%. With this movement patterns it's fair to assume that the gains porcentage will be lower, so we infer gains of up to 1,000% for the next bullrun. The price top we obtain with these calculations is roughly $150,000
I hope you enjoy this review and found it useful. Or, at least, that this helps to give that little push needed for trend reversal.
Cheers!
The material in this publication has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any viewer. This publication is presented solely for informational and entertainment purposes and is not to be construed as a recommendation, solicitation or an offer to buy or sell / long or short any securities, commodities, cryptocurrencies or any related financial instruments. Nor should any of its content be taken as investment advice. Trading and investing is extremely high risk and can result in the loss of all of your capital. Any opinions expressed in this publication are subject to change without notice.
1) Cycle Duration: Bearish cycle & Bullish cycle
2) Bear cycle bottom & Current bear market correction
3) Bull cycle top & Next bull cycle gains
1) Cycle Duration
Bearish cycle: If we measure the duration of the previous bearish cycles, we can see that the 1st cycle lasted around 150 days, the 2nd cycle lasted around 640 days, and the 3rd one lasted near 820 days. If we average them we can estimate a duration of 550 days for the current bearish cycle. As a result, we can infer a high degree of probability that we'll touch the bottom within the 4th quarter of 2022.
Bullish cycle: If we measure the number of days between the maximums of each cycle, we obtain an average of 1180 days. With this result we can infer that the next cycle top will be around June 2024. On the other hand, measuring the duration of the bullish cycle of each macro cycle, we obtain an average of 600 days per cycle. Which allows us to forecast that the next bullrun will be between the 4th quarter of 2022 and the end of 2023 1st semester.
2) Bear cycle bottom & Current bear market correction
Bear cycle bottom: The first bitcoin correction was about 93%, the 2nd one was near 85%, and the 3rd one was arround 83%. On average, bitcoin corrections have been reducing by 5 points per cycle, so we can infer that the current correction can reach approximately 73%. The price bottom we obtain with these calculations is roughly $14,000
3) Bull cycle top & Next bull cycle gains
Bull cycle top: As in all markets, as the market capitalization of an asset increases, the amount of money that needs to be injected to produce a significant price movement also increases. Therefore, in percentage terms, we can expect the profit level of the next bullrun to be lower than the previous one. In total terms, the 1st bullrun saw a rise of around 52,000%, the 2nd bullrun rise was close to 12,000%, while the 3rd rise was close to 2,000%. With this movement patterns it's fair to assume that the gains porcentage will be lower, so we infer gains of up to 1,000% for the next bullrun. The price top we obtain with these calculations is roughly $150,000
I hope you enjoy this review and found it useful. Or, at least, that this helps to give that little push needed for trend reversal.
Cheers!