Are there really Cycles in the Crypto market?
Are there really cycles in the markets?
-Are cycles only in the stock market or in all walks of life?
-What is the use of understanding cycles?
-How is it always going up or not?
-If it always goes up, why do the majority lose?
-Is there a similarity? Does it always have to be similar?
-How do we recognize meaningful textures? How do we distinguish between cycles and meaningless similarities?
Are altoins long-term or cyclical?
-But could it be different this time?
Cycles and similarities actually exist in every aspect of life. In living beings, inanimate beings, radioactive elements, our planet, the universe, the devices we use, products, history, sports and the part that interests us - the markets.
As long as humans and markets exist, these cycles will continue. If human behavior is similar across time, the consequences of human behavior should be similar. So, what do we actually see in the graphs. "Consequences of human behavior
Within cycles, there will always be new winners and losers.
This is why the stock market exists. In order for the last losers to win, new last-comers must enter the market (new cycle).
Cycles in crypto are faster than in general markets. Cycles that used to take almost a human lifetime in classical exchanges, commodities and exchange rates have now been reduced to shorter periods due to the speed of life, the impact of technology and the increase in the number of investors.
Another reason for the speed in crypto is that the market can be traded 24/7 and 365 days a year. Within a year, we see more transactions and more movement in crypto than in other markets.
The crypto market is the most suitable market for the speed of the new world (technology-fashion-obsolescence-consumption speed, etc.) and reflects the speed of the age. Fast technology, fast fashion, fast communication, fast human relations, fast production-consumption; and of course fast MARKET.
The increase in speed in every aspect of life would of course also affect the markets. There are good and bad sides to this; very quick losses and very quick gains.
Reasons for rapid losses and gains:
a-) The market we are in is not regulated (rule-law),
b-) The fact that its technology is very new, that its technological part is understood only by a certain segment of the population, again speaking for the world in general; +
a very minority group is only capable of distinguishing right from wrong with their own analysis,
c-) With just a phone; it can be operated very simply by everyone (young, old, rich, poor, educated, uneducated, women, men, etc.) regardless of class, gender, age
What do I mean by the above?
a-) Lack of supervisory and regulatory rules; There are no regulations protecting investors in this market. In other words, our money is not protected or insured by any state-institution as of now.
As you know, when there are no rules and when there is big and easy money involved, people with bad intentions end up here. The fact that it's easy to issue tokens, that there are no rules for creating tokens, selling them, marketing them, advertising them
Limited number of shares in the stock exchanges and too many rules for going public (according to crypto=) ) So coins come out almost every minute. Exchanges can be easily opened in tax haven countries,
Easy (low-cost) listing of coins on decentralized exchanges or shitcoin exchanges. It is easy to issue and sell tokens as if you were creating an asset from scratch with no strings attached, and it is very easy to sell during bull periods,
No penalties for marketing and manipulating Shitcoins on Social Media. Since it is the most risk-averse market in the world, rug-pulling is considered normal by investors.
Experienced malicious people can make big profits in a short period of time at a low cost. (We have seen many examples of the bull, which we have seen many examples of before, hitting 4-5m USD with a cost of $ 50,000 and escaping - advertising, shilling, etc.).
b-) Incompetent people believe in everything and enter into direct transactions without knowing and learning (creating volume) (small money - many transactions) Experienced investors make fewer transactions with more information and analysis (big money - few transactions),
On the contrary, inadequate or new investors taking more transactions with sudden decisions and feelings, "More transactions, more money perception", stock market advertisements that push believers to make more transactions (Exchange = gettin commission income)
Are altoins long-term or cyclical?
To put it crudely: The more shitcoin an Altcoin is, the more cyclical it is (i.e. earn during the trend and run away when the trend ends). The more quality and proven Altcoin is, and the more it solves a problem, the more long-term it is.
You can look at Altcoin/btc parities to see what I mean. Very few Altcoins have been able to show a sustainable increase against BTC and only in certain periods.
Does the crypto market always have to grow?
Unless there are very harsh regulations or bans, "Yes" against paper currencies. it doesn't matter whether it is usd, eur or gbp.
Content of cycles:
Briefly: 3 periods Decline from peak > accumulation > ascent
Bottom level base formation, saw zone, pre-rally, disbelief, aggressive rally.
Afterwards, the cycle repeats according to the conditions of the coming days.
Although the cycles follow one another, each cycle is different from each other.
That is, the periods of decline-accumulation-rise can be of different lengths. Depending on the conditions of the period, there may have been a very long uptrend. This may be followed by a very long and sharp correction. At the end of a weak trend, the downturn may be short. We will examine the details on the charts.
When we enter the accumulation period, the price has realized the bottom formation and the products sold at the peak have started to be collected again at low cost by the big players (capital, whales, rich people, masons, 7 families ruling the world, whatever you want to call it:) ). This process can be long or short depending on the period (see chainlink)
Sometimes markets can recover quickly with a V shape (rapid decline-fast reaction) (covid period). Sometimes we see a saw in a certain narrow price range at the bottom. (Btc 2015-2016) The aim is to collect goods without raising the price and without making it obvious.
Understanding the cycle through Doge?
Dogecoin was launched in December 2013. In December this year, it will be 10 years old. That's a long time for the crypto market.
We have witnessed 3 different cycles of Doge in these 10 years.
1. Trend > It took 476 minutes to fall from its peak to its lowest point. It then rose from this point (not forming a new bottom) and accumulated. This up and down process lasted until February 2017. This is where the "doge-style bullish" phase, as we will later call it, began. In the region where this uptrend started, it gets support from the 100-week moving average (100w sma) and the move begins.
Level 1: peak zone
Level 2: Intermediate transition line (Important support-resistances are in place)
Level 3: Bottom and Accumulation bowl
2nd Trend > The uptrend that started in February 2017 continues until January 2018 with 2 stages. The 3-level structure is also seen here. The decline from the peak to the low lasts 798 days. The upward break of the trend lasts 910. Here, too, the region gets support from the 100-week moving average (100w sma) and aggressive action begins. We can say that the rise until May 2021 is again in 2 phases.
Trend 3 > Along with the whole market, Doge's trend turns bearish in May 2021. The lowest level we have seen so far in Doge within this trend is $0.05. 833 days have passed since the May 2021 peak. We are below the 100-week average and the average is now at $0.11.
What's important in this Dogecoin cycle chart;
3-level structure
Time from peak > trend breakout
Position relative to the 100-week moving average
Aggressive 2-stage bullish moves starting after the trend breakout.
Explaining it through Doge is easy for both the narrator and the reader. It shows the cycle clearly. I have prepared multiple doge charts, you can review them.
Are there similarities, and if so, do they always have to be similar?
Capturing similarities and using them meaningfully
Similarity does not always have to be in every product. Different actions may have taken place in very different scenarios. The important thing is to find the mathematically meaningful similarity and draw conclusions in a way that is useful to us.
Similarity is not just a resemblance of shape when viewed from a distance.
It must be confirmed in many ways and temporally proportional.
It should also be possible with important indicators such as Rsi and moving averages.
Just as technical analysis is not just 2 lines, similarity is not just a resemblance of shape.
It should also be kept in mind. Cycles and similarities are most meaningful on long-term charts
Siacoin
XRP/BTC
VERGE
Digibyte
Are there really cycles in the markets?
-Are cycles only in the stock market or in all walks of life?
-What is the use of understanding cycles?
-How is it always going up or not?
-If it always goes up, why do the majority lose?
-Is there a similarity? Does it always have to be similar?
-How do we recognize meaningful textures? How do we distinguish between cycles and meaningless similarities?
Are altoins long-term or cyclical?
-But could it be different this time?
Cycles and similarities actually exist in every aspect of life. In living beings, inanimate beings, radioactive elements, our planet, the universe, the devices we use, products, history, sports and the part that interests us - the markets.
As long as humans and markets exist, these cycles will continue. If human behavior is similar across time, the consequences of human behavior should be similar. So, what do we actually see in the graphs. "Consequences of human behavior
Within cycles, there will always be new winners and losers.
This is why the stock market exists. In order for the last losers to win, new last-comers must enter the market (new cycle).
Cycles in crypto are faster than in general markets. Cycles that used to take almost a human lifetime in classical exchanges, commodities and exchange rates have now been reduced to shorter periods due to the speed of life, the impact of technology and the increase in the number of investors.
Another reason for the speed in crypto is that the market can be traded 24/7 and 365 days a year. Within a year, we see more transactions and more movement in crypto than in other markets.
The crypto market is the most suitable market for the speed of the new world (technology-fashion-obsolescence-consumption speed, etc.) and reflects the speed of the age. Fast technology, fast fashion, fast communication, fast human relations, fast production-consumption; and of course fast MARKET.
The increase in speed in every aspect of life would of course also affect the markets. There are good and bad sides to this; very quick losses and very quick gains.
Reasons for rapid losses and gains:
a-) The market we are in is not regulated (rule-law),
b-) The fact that its technology is very new, that its technological part is understood only by a certain segment of the population, again speaking for the world in general; +
a very minority group is only capable of distinguishing right from wrong with their own analysis,
c-) With just a phone; it can be operated very simply by everyone (young, old, rich, poor, educated, uneducated, women, men, etc.) regardless of class, gender, age
What do I mean by the above?
a-) Lack of supervisory and regulatory rules; There are no regulations protecting investors in this market. In other words, our money is not protected or insured by any state-institution as of now.
As you know, when there are no rules and when there is big and easy money involved, people with bad intentions end up here. The fact that it's easy to issue tokens, that there are no rules for creating tokens, selling them, marketing them, advertising them
Limited number of shares in the stock exchanges and too many rules for going public (according to crypto=) ) So coins come out almost every minute. Exchanges can be easily opened in tax haven countries,
Easy (low-cost) listing of coins on decentralized exchanges or shitcoin exchanges. It is easy to issue and sell tokens as if you were creating an asset from scratch with no strings attached, and it is very easy to sell during bull periods,
No penalties for marketing and manipulating Shitcoins on Social Media. Since it is the most risk-averse market in the world, rug-pulling is considered normal by investors.
Experienced malicious people can make big profits in a short period of time at a low cost. (We have seen many examples of the bull, which we have seen many examples of before, hitting 4-5m USD with a cost of $ 50,000 and escaping - advertising, shilling, etc.).
b-) Incompetent people believe in everything and enter into direct transactions without knowing and learning (creating volume) (small money - many transactions) Experienced investors make fewer transactions with more information and analysis (big money - few transactions),
On the contrary, inadequate or new investors taking more transactions with sudden decisions and feelings, "More transactions, more money perception", stock market advertisements that push believers to make more transactions (Exchange = gettin commission income)
Are altoins long-term or cyclical?
To put it crudely: The more shitcoin an Altcoin is, the more cyclical it is (i.e. earn during the trend and run away when the trend ends). The more quality and proven Altcoin is, and the more it solves a problem, the more long-term it is.
You can look at Altcoin/btc parities to see what I mean. Very few Altcoins have been able to show a sustainable increase against BTC and only in certain periods.
Does the crypto market always have to grow?
Unless there are very harsh regulations or bans, "Yes" against paper currencies. it doesn't matter whether it is usd, eur or gbp.
Content of cycles:
Briefly: 3 periods Decline from peak > accumulation > ascent
Bottom level base formation, saw zone, pre-rally, disbelief, aggressive rally.
Afterwards, the cycle repeats according to the conditions of the coming days.
Although the cycles follow one another, each cycle is different from each other.
That is, the periods of decline-accumulation-rise can be of different lengths. Depending on the conditions of the period, there may have been a very long uptrend. This may be followed by a very long and sharp correction. At the end of a weak trend, the downturn may be short. We will examine the details on the charts.
When we enter the accumulation period, the price has realized the bottom formation and the products sold at the peak have started to be collected again at low cost by the big players (capital, whales, rich people, masons, 7 families ruling the world, whatever you want to call it:) ). This process can be long or short depending on the period (see chainlink)
Sometimes markets can recover quickly with a V shape (rapid decline-fast reaction) (covid period). Sometimes we see a saw in a certain narrow price range at the bottom. (Btc 2015-2016) The aim is to collect goods without raising the price and without making it obvious.
Understanding the cycle through Doge?
Dogecoin was launched in December 2013. In December this year, it will be 10 years old. That's a long time for the crypto market.
We have witnessed 3 different cycles of Doge in these 10 years.
1. Trend > It took 476 minutes to fall from its peak to its lowest point. It then rose from this point (not forming a new bottom) and accumulated. This up and down process lasted until February 2017. This is where the "doge-style bullish" phase, as we will later call it, began. In the region where this uptrend started, it gets support from the 100-week moving average (100w sma) and the move begins.
Level 1: peak zone
Level 2: Intermediate transition line (Important support-resistances are in place)
Level 3: Bottom and Accumulation bowl
2nd Trend > The uptrend that started in February 2017 continues until January 2018 with 2 stages. The 3-level structure is also seen here. The decline from the peak to the low lasts 798 days. The upward break of the trend lasts 910. Here, too, the region gets support from the 100-week moving average (100w sma) and aggressive action begins. We can say that the rise until May 2021 is again in 2 phases.
Trend 3 > Along with the whole market, Doge's trend turns bearish in May 2021. The lowest level we have seen so far in Doge within this trend is $0.05. 833 days have passed since the May 2021 peak. We are below the 100-week average and the average is now at $0.11.
What's important in this Dogecoin cycle chart;
3-level structure
Time from peak > trend breakout
Position relative to the 100-week moving average
Aggressive 2-stage bullish moves starting after the trend breakout.
Explaining it through Doge is easy for both the narrator and the reader. It shows the cycle clearly. I have prepared multiple doge charts, you can review them.
Are there similarities, and if so, do they always have to be similar?
Capturing similarities and using them meaningfully
Similarity does not always have to be in every product. Different actions may have taken place in very different scenarios. The important thing is to find the mathematically meaningful similarity and draw conclusions in a way that is useful to us.
Similarity is not just a resemblance of shape when viewed from a distance.
It must be confirmed in many ways and temporally proportional.
It should also be possible with important indicators such as Rsi and moving averages.
Just as technical analysis is not just 2 lines, similarity is not just a resemblance of shape.
It should also be kept in mind. Cycles and similarities are most meaningful on long-term charts
Siacoin
XRP/BTC
VERGE
Digibyte
