I know many of you will not like this idea. It is a pure speculation based on how the different values like time and percentage decline or rise. I know that time is completely impossible to predict, even prices can range dramatically +-1k%, so my purpose is to share my price view as realistic as possible.
Every super cycle consists of two smaller ones. It is hard to get your head around that from 2018-2020 btc was just pausing and moving sideways in a massive range. It was not really a bear market from a supercycle perspective. What took btc 2 months in 2010, it takes almost 3 years right now. Each supercycle takes exponentially longer to play out, percentage gains in each cycle is also declining rapidly in log. fashion:
-1st SC (3608943 %) -- 329 d
-2nd SC (58398 %) -- 742 d
-3rd SC (41981 %) -- 2492 d
based on that percentage decline we could expect 30k% for the 4th one.
Even if BTC falls to 2.5k it would still be above 700k by the end of the supercycle if 30k % is in the cards. It is just that it would quite possibly take 18-24 years (~7k days based on exp. increase).
I expect this bear market to be similar to 2011 where price lost 93%. It is largely because stock market is expected to collapse in 2022 and BTC has never experienced that. Wherever it falls it will eventually rise back up even stronger.
Bear markets between supercycles are also getting lengthened exponentially. Not that fast than bull runs but still they do:
-1st bear market (-93 %) -- 161 d
-2nd bear market (-86 %) -- 406 d
due to having only 2 bear markets between the cycles it is even harder to predict how long it could take for the 3rd one as we don't even form exponential line growth from having only 2 values. Needles to say it is lengthening exponentially so to assume that it can take 3 years for the crash to finish is not completely unrealistic.
Bottoms are also increasing exponentially:
-1st $0.0009
-2nd $2.01
-3rd $163.88
-(4th $2300-$2800)
I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Take care.
Every super cycle consists of two smaller ones. It is hard to get your head around that from 2018-2020 btc was just pausing and moving sideways in a massive range. It was not really a bear market from a supercycle perspective. What took btc 2 months in 2010, it takes almost 3 years right now. Each supercycle takes exponentially longer to play out, percentage gains in each cycle is also declining rapidly in log. fashion:
-1st SC (3608943 %) -- 329 d
-2nd SC (58398 %) -- 742 d
-3rd SC (41981 %) -- 2492 d
based on that percentage decline we could expect 30k% for the 4th one.
Even if BTC falls to 2.5k it would still be above 700k by the end of the supercycle if 30k % is in the cards. It is just that it would quite possibly take 18-24 years (~7k days based on exp. increase).
I expect this bear market to be similar to 2011 where price lost 93%. It is largely because stock market is expected to collapse in 2022 and BTC has never experienced that. Wherever it falls it will eventually rise back up even stronger.
Bear markets between supercycles are also getting lengthened exponentially. Not that fast than bull runs but still they do:
-1st bear market (-93 %) -- 161 d
-2nd bear market (-86 %) -- 406 d
due to having only 2 bear markets between the cycles it is even harder to predict how long it could take for the 3rd one as we don't even form exponential line growth from having only 2 values. Needles to say it is lengthening exponentially so to assume that it can take 3 years for the crash to finish is not completely unrealistic.
Bottoms are also increasing exponentially:
-1st $0.0009
-2nd $2.01
-3rd $163.88
-(4th $2300-$2800)
I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Take care.
Comment:
Also, the stock to flow model that everyone likes to look at will eventually get invalidated. For that i am shore.