This new BTC cycle continues to rhyme with the previous 3 cycles almost perfectly.
everyone said this cycle would be different but I am just seeing more of the same...
In trading we should expect the same until proven otherwise, its like the trader continuing to attempt a break out trade while the market is moving sideways in a range, it might reject 7-8 times before it finally breaks out a changes its behaviour.
So far in the reaccumulation year price has moved up to the 0.618 which is the pre-halving target, exactly the same thing happend in the last 2 cycles, and its happening again this cycle.
Now the ETF approval could change that this cycle and we could push above the 0.618 pre halving which 47k on BTC for this cycle, so we have an outlier factor in play.
We could see trading above but a throw back before the weekly and monthly closes OR a change of charater that is more bullish and potentially we see a new all time high before the halving for the first time ever... I think thats unlikely and we see a 30% throw back between the ETFs launch and the halving.
Then post halving we start to feel the increased demand from the new institutional channels, and incentives wall st brokers will be getting, plus the marketing budgets to sugget and advertise people to buy BTC ETFS... combined with the cut in supply from the halving, leads us into a new bull run.
IF we hit similar Fib targets as the last cycle that could move us up to levels around 180k at the 3.272 for a lower target, 3.618 equalling last cycles high would be 200k, and potentially an over shoot to around 230k at the 4.236 fib level.
lets see what the market brews up for us and as always we need to keep an eye on cycle timing, FED liquidity levels, whats happening with interest rates and QE/QT around the end of 2025.
Thanks for following see you in the next update.
everyone said this cycle would be different but I am just seeing more of the same...
In trading we should expect the same until proven otherwise, its like the trader continuing to attempt a break out trade while the market is moving sideways in a range, it might reject 7-8 times before it finally breaks out a changes its behaviour.
So far in the reaccumulation year price has moved up to the 0.618 which is the pre-halving target, exactly the same thing happend in the last 2 cycles, and its happening again this cycle.
Now the ETF approval could change that this cycle and we could push above the 0.618 pre halving which 47k on BTC for this cycle, so we have an outlier factor in play.
We could see trading above but a throw back before the weekly and monthly closes OR a change of charater that is more bullish and potentially we see a new all time high before the halving for the first time ever... I think thats unlikely and we see a 30% throw back between the ETFs launch and the halving.
Then post halving we start to feel the increased demand from the new institutional channels, and incentives wall st brokers will be getting, plus the marketing budgets to sugget and advertise people to buy BTC ETFS... combined with the cut in supply from the halving, leads us into a new bull run.
IF we hit similar Fib targets as the last cycle that could move us up to levels around 180k at the 3.272 for a lower target, 3.618 equalling last cycles high would be 200k, and potentially an over shoot to around 230k at the 4.236 fib level.
lets see what the market brews up for us and as always we need to keep an eye on cycle timing, FED liquidity levels, whats happening with interest rates and QE/QT around the end of 2025.
Thanks for following see you in the next update.