Bitcoin Has A Reality Check With Elliot Wave Theory
Hello Traders,
Quite a simple chart really. I've seen others around but thought I would do my own. Anybody familiar with Elliot Wave Theory will know this simple principle of how markets move. Anybody who has not read the book you will find this information on page 1-2. This is a textbook 5 impulse waves up to complete main cycle wave 1. Now we are in an ABC retracement to complete main cycle wave 2.
I have put a pitchfork on this chart which I really like and seems to hit all the right spots.
I have also put in a regular set of fibs AND a set formatted for log scale on the retracement. Notice the difference, the chart is in log scale. The 0.236 would be considered a minor retracement but that log fib is reading $650 which also coincides with the bottom of the fork, in between waves 3 and 4 which seems like a realistic target based on what the book says.
I think this scenario is likely to play out. That recent pump to the top of B was a bit early to fit into the halving symmetry. Its spent a suspiciously long time to retrace so far which makes me think distribution. Alt coins have seen major weakness, some of them retracing below wave 1 territory which looks extremely bearish and makes me think this was not an impulsive move at all.
Also, EVERYBODY (The Herd) is getting excited about the halving and the possibility of a pre halving pump, just like what happened the last 2 times.
Think about it, Bitcoin started pumping 366 days before the first halving. It also started pumping 335 days before the second halving. That means that Bitcoin MUST start pumping again around 335-360 before the halving right? I mean, its the rules right!
WRONG. Everybody thinking the same thing means it wont happen. Bitcoin actually peaked 335 days before this upcoming halving and has been selling to the late crowd ever since. Markets are evil and psychological. It will keep dumping through the halving date at the disbelief of BTC enthusiasts. The mainstream media will print negative press and claim bitcoin has "officially" died (again) with crap like "not even the halving could turn Bitcoin around" or "Halving Event Kills Bitcoin Bulls" or "Bitcoin! The Worst Investment on Planet Earth" etc
Once everybody has been spoon fed the narrative and completely lost all hope and faith, there is your accumulation point.
Quite a simple chart really. I've seen others around but thought I would do my own. Anybody familiar with Elliot Wave Theory will know this simple principle of how markets move. Anybody who has not read the book you will find this information on page 1-2. This is a textbook 5 impulse waves up to complete main cycle wave 1. Now we are in an ABC retracement to complete main cycle wave 2.
I have put a pitchfork on this chart which I really like and seems to hit all the right spots.
I have also put in a regular set of fibs AND a set formatted for log scale on the retracement. Notice the difference, the chart is in log scale. The 0.236 would be considered a minor retracement but that log fib is reading $650 which also coincides with the bottom of the fork, in between waves 3 and 4 which seems like a realistic target based on what the book says.
I think this scenario is likely to play out. That recent pump to the top of B was a bit early to fit into the halving symmetry. Its spent a suspiciously long time to retrace so far which makes me think distribution. Alt coins have seen major weakness, some of them retracing below wave 1 territory which looks extremely bearish and makes me think this was not an impulsive move at all.
Also, EVERYBODY (The Herd) is getting excited about the halving and the possibility of a pre halving pump, just like what happened the last 2 times.
Think about it, Bitcoin started pumping 366 days before the first halving. It also started pumping 335 days before the second halving. That means that Bitcoin MUST start pumping again around 335-360 before the halving right? I mean, its the rules right!
WRONG. Everybody thinking the same thing means it wont happen. Bitcoin actually peaked 335 days before this upcoming halving and has been selling to the late crowd ever since. Markets are evil and psychological. It will keep dumping through the halving date at the disbelief of BTC enthusiasts. The mainstream media will print negative press and claim bitcoin has "officially" died (again) with crap like "not even the halving could turn Bitcoin around" or "Halving Event Kills Bitcoin Bulls" or "Bitcoin! The Worst Investment on Planet Earth" etc
Once everybody has been spoon fed the narrative and completely lost all hope and faith, there is your accumulation point.
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What could unfold.
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Look at the monthly bollinger band and how it caught that second top. The bottom of the band is lining up along the monthly 100 MA.
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The median line is breaking down. Looks bad from here. All markets look like death right now.
