(45% probability) Bitcoin is following a path of slowly decreasing volatility which leads me to believe a top around 66,000 is likely (RED).
(45% probabiity) However, the market environment is very bullish and that is also adding to bullishness in bitcoin (e.g. Musk/Tesla buying bitcoin) this leads me to also accept the possibility that a more bullish target around 100,000 is also possible which would lead it just below that long term trend line it also failed at once already.
(10% probability) Now... Lets say things get little more extreme. The government has been implementing record breaking stimulus right as the economy is finally starting to open up. This is leading to massive supply shortages and excess money supply as everyone is trying to ramp back up at the same time with tons of money on the books. Bitcoin still has a relatively small market cap at about a half of apple and a tenth of golds MC. In this environment 400,000-600,000 would be my most bullish target as that aligns with the past movements in bitcoins past which ranged around 2000% to 3000% above the previous all time highs,
(45% probabiity) However, the market environment is very bullish and that is also adding to bullishness in bitcoin (e.g. Musk/Tesla buying bitcoin) this leads me to also accept the possibility that a more bullish target around 100,000 is also possible which would lead it just below that long term trend line it also failed at once already.
(10% probability) Now... Lets say things get little more extreme. The government has been implementing record breaking stimulus right as the economy is finally starting to open up. This is leading to massive supply shortages and excess money supply as everyone is trying to ramp back up at the same time with tons of money on the books. Bitcoin still has a relatively small market cap at about a half of apple and a tenth of golds MC. In this environment 400,000-600,000 would be my most bullish target as that aligns with the past movements in bitcoins past which ranged around 2000% to 3000% above the previous all time highs,
90%
9%
1%