BRN

Following the current situation we have 2 basic scenarios about oil price:

1. Yellow: USA already started some jawboning about support for their oil industry and etc, and we should not forget that normally such cautious talks are about to "measure" the possible reaction. So we wait here some possible reaction, probably going up till 40 and then falling again to retest the bottom.

2. Green: in this case we don't consider to see any huge up movement, but the slower continuation of going down.

Comment:

Also, don't forget that all this clash between Russia and Saudis looks pretty fake, from my point of view, we should be looking not to the price, but to the market share, quite possible that all this is done to take "back" the share from the US shelf companies which aggressively took from OPEC and OPEC+ during last years.

P.S. shelf oil cost price for us companies is about 40 dollars per barrel, so all below will make them cut the production.

Trade closed: target reached:

not the price but the shape, it is time to rethink the setups