BANKNIFTY - "Cuts and Hikes"

Bank nifty graph more of punt at this point of time than to pen its character. Such is the element of time to spare. The PIP graph is clearly a V shape recovery. Move Over, August, Come September. The Weekly, four bear candles are greeted with equally strong four bull candles, rising around the previous high and Mid Bollinger Band. If you are not taught of this simple observation or learnt, or don't remember then it is time to revert back to basics. There simply is shortage of capital to allocate here at this point of time. Late market hours, China CRR (commodity positive, liquidity additive?), then comes the ECB hike. Market cheer both events. This morning China data Industrial Production and Retail sales both beat forecast, leave your doubts on reliability, markets don't care. Rural and Urban inflation remains newspaper material but no news driver to the stocks. What is more important is the reduction in borrowing, if the small savings mobilisation turns out above expectation, that is big positive to the bond markets and in turn to the banks. Credit growth to moderate (less pressure on costs?), the gap between deposits and credit to narrow without the broader decline in the bottom-line. US 3-10 Y continue to hit historic lows of 233 days, a phenomenon which empirically led to recession. WPI comes negative, added factor to take home.

For the day expect move past 46150-250 probably an ATH today itself? won't be surprised. Carrying all logos of banks in my portfolio, nothing to leave. Caution, I am an Ex-Banker. Biased to Banks. Long stops 45800 towards 46800 (beyond this week)