PaulNorris

Chance to go long in BABA with 11 November approach?

Long
NYSE:BABA   Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd.
11 November is the Singles' day of China. It’s a festival held by TaoBao ( The biggest online shopping platform in China, formed by AliBaba) since 2009. At that time, most of the online stores in TaoBao will give out great discount to customers. Customers usually can buy goods at the lowest price of the year on 11 November. Almost every Chinese are waiting for it right now to clear their online shopping cart. Actually, most online stores tend to give customers discount before 11 November.

Statistics shows that on 2019, more than 650 million people in China have access to online shopping, which is almost half of the population in China. On 11 November,2019 the transaction volume in Taobao is 268.4 billion CNY, on 2018 it’s 213.5billion, on 2017 it’s 168.2. It’s clearly in a uptrend.

If I measure the price of BABA at 11, November to the next top, we can see there are short term opportunities to get some profit, especially in the past two years. If the price of BABA is in a downtrend , around 11 November, the down trend usually tend to stop and will have a small raise to the upside. Except 11 November 2017, you can also treat 11 November as a good entry price for BABA.

In the past few days, BABA’s price dumped because of its financial service associated company——Ant financial service group’s plan of listing on Shanghai Stock Exchange and Hong Kong stock exchange got delayed. The reason for the delay probably is because of the company’s high financial risk. BaBa’s founder MaYun will be interviewed by related official department.

I personally will look at the yellow uptrend support. Right now the latest daily candled closed above the yellow support. If it go back more and retain support, I think I will expect to go long on Baba.
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