Buy real things, the likes of AUDUSD will prosper
Don't often comment on the forex markets but here goes.
The US dollar has been weaponized and sanctions, have proven that anyone holding a USD can quickly see that wealth disappear. The US Treasury is a monopolist and so controls the US dollar debt issuance, however, the wider collateral-backed system of the eurodollar futures is out of the jurisdiction of the Fed and US Treasury. So as we have seen in the Russian conflict, Afghanistan, Iran, Venezuela, Libya, the list goes on, central banks can weaponize the US dollar against regimes they don't like. They can apply sanctions banning trade with countries. Countries like Iran get around this problem by making their own system. On a more personal level, the Crypto-sphere gets around the US dollar by allowing exchange between different coins.
Central banks will dump foreign reserves in favour of holding real commodities. You can't eat or burn digital dollars. People need real things. Look at a 30,000 ft view of the earth on Google Earth and you can see the equatorial band of arid land as topsoil is blown from Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and obviously China. India and China have the world's largest populations. They will need a lot of food and a lot of resources. If countries move away from the US dollar system, gradually, at some point the world's superpower will realize that no one wants to rely on them as they will be trading with fewer countries.
Peace comes from collaboration and trade. The US foreign policy has been to use the Dollar as one of the keys to world economic prosperity and backed it up with the big stick of this is what you lose if we cut you out of the global reserve.
Commodity currencies like the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar will do well. But we should look to Russia, Mexico, Brazil for the future turn too.
Saudi Arabia has excess oil production capabilities. How do we know, well they are still in the middle of a production cut. If they wanted oil back down at $80 they'd only need to up the supply back to pre-cut levels. Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ can also see the writing on the wall for them come 2030 if they align themselves with the west. The US is energy independent. Europe is mandating that carbon neutrality occurs faster. Meaning less consumption of carbon and especially oil. Saudi looks to Asia and Russia for future prosperity and cheap oil has been the reason the west has prospered in the last 60 years.
The AUDUSD in this wave looks like it has a few pips to go before reaching the supply zone and upper bound of the pitchfork. I'll be looking for longs.
The US dollar has been weaponized and sanctions, have proven that anyone holding a USD can quickly see that wealth disappear. The US Treasury is a monopolist and so controls the US dollar debt issuance, however, the wider collateral-backed system of the eurodollar futures is out of the jurisdiction of the Fed and US Treasury. So as we have seen in the Russian conflict, Afghanistan, Iran, Venezuela, Libya, the list goes on, central banks can weaponize the US dollar against regimes they don't like. They can apply sanctions banning trade with countries. Countries like Iran get around this problem by making their own system. On a more personal level, the Crypto-sphere gets around the US dollar by allowing exchange between different coins.
Central banks will dump foreign reserves in favour of holding real commodities. You can't eat or burn digital dollars. People need real things. Look at a 30,000 ft view of the earth on Google Earth and you can see the equatorial band of arid land as topsoil is blown from Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and obviously China. India and China have the world's largest populations. They will need a lot of food and a lot of resources. If countries move away from the US dollar system, gradually, at some point the world's superpower will realize that no one wants to rely on them as they will be trading with fewer countries.
Peace comes from collaboration and trade. The US foreign policy has been to use the Dollar as one of the keys to world economic prosperity and backed it up with the big stick of this is what you lose if we cut you out of the global reserve.
Commodity currencies like the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar will do well. But we should look to Russia, Mexico, Brazil for the future turn too.
Saudi Arabia has excess oil production capabilities. How do we know, well they are still in the middle of a production cut. If they wanted oil back down at $80 they'd only need to up the supply back to pre-cut levels. Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ can also see the writing on the wall for them come 2030 if they align themselves with the west. The US is energy independent. Europe is mandating that carbon neutrality occurs faster. Meaning less consumption of carbon and especially oil. Saudi looks to Asia and Russia for future prosperity and cheap oil has been the reason the west has prospered in the last 60 years.
The AUDUSD in this wave looks like it has a few pips to go before reaching the supply zone and upper bound of the pitchfork. I'll be looking for longs.