Hello Traders,
Last week I took a short position on the AUDUSD before the CPI data release, the stop loss was tight so it got hit But I took another short position and I'm still in.
I still like shorting the AUDUSD, and here is why:
*The Fundamentals:
- GDP Growth: (AUD 0.5% / USD: 2.7%) is higher in the US.
- Inflation: (AUD: 7.8% / USD: 6.0%) is hotter in Australia than the US.
- Unemployment: (AUD: 3.7% / USD: 3.6%)
- Interest Rates: (AUD: 3.60% / USD: 4.75%) is higher in the US which is good for the USD.
The Fundamentals numbers are in the favor of the USD.
*Sentiment:
-COT Report: shows /65.4%/ of the institutional Future open contracts are long on the USD, while /40.7%/ are long on the AUD.
This favors the USD over the AUD.
- Retail Sentiment: 56% of retail traders are long, which is not in our favor this time.
-We can see the /Risk Off/ Sentiment in the markets after some banks collapse and the high inflation in the America. /Risk Off/ assets like Gold, JPY, USD, Bitcoin is shooting higher.
Technical:
The Price is in a good and healthy downtrend with lower lows and lower highs, made a retracement to the /0.618/ fib zone which shows a good resistance. This gives a good risk to reward ratio.
This Thursday we have a VERY important news from America /Fund interest rate/ release. This news most likely to make volatility in the markets.
Trade Safe !
Last week I took a short position on the AUDUSD before the CPI data release, the stop loss was tight so it got hit But I took another short position and I'm still in.
*The Fundamentals:
- GDP Growth: (AUD 0.5% / USD: 2.7%) is higher in the US.
- Inflation: (AUD: 7.8% / USD: 6.0%) is hotter in Australia than the US.
- Unemployment: (AUD: 3.7% / USD: 3.6%)
- Interest Rates: (AUD: 3.60% / USD: 4.75%) is higher in the US which is good for the USD.
The Fundamentals numbers are in the favor of the USD.
*Sentiment:
-COT Report: shows /65.4%/ of the institutional Future open contracts are long on the USD, while /40.7%/ are long on the AUD.
This favors the USD over the AUD.
- Retail Sentiment: 56% of retail traders are long, which is not in our favor this time.
-We can see the /Risk Off/ Sentiment in the markets after some banks collapse and the high inflation in the America. /Risk Off/ assets like Gold, JPY, USD, Bitcoin is shooting higher.
Technical:
The Price is in a good and healthy downtrend with lower lows and lower highs, made a retracement to the /0.618/ fib zone which shows a good resistance. This gives a good risk to reward ratio.
This Thursday we have a VERY important news from America /Fund interest rate/ release. This news most likely to make volatility in the markets.
Trade Safe !
Comment:
The price tested the resistance level few times but couldn't break it and now the trade is on green ..
Trade closed: stop reached:
The Dollar shows weakness after the interest rate increase of 25bps.
