OlympusLab

AUDUSD Weekly Forecast CashRate | 4th June 2023

Short
OANDA:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Fundamental Backdrop
  • RBA Gov Lowe mentioned "Very Much in Data-Dependent Mode on Interest Rates", "Monetary Policy in Restrictive Territory"
  • This means that the RBA is closely monitoring economic data and could potentially continue increasing interest rates
  • CPI y/y also increased from 6.3% to 6.8%, this shows inflation is still on a strong rise which can lead to an increase in interest rates.
  • Cash Rate on Tuesday expected to maintain at 3.85%

Technical Confluences
  • Near-term resistance level at 0.66196
  • Next resistance at 0.67860
  • Near-term support level at 0.65220

Idea
If the RBA chooses to maintain its cash rate at 3.85% on Tuesday, we could see the AUD drop towards the near-term support at 0.65220.

However, if the unexpected occurs and the RBA chooses to increase its interest rates, we could see the price rise above the near-term resistance level at 0.66196, before heading towards the next resistance at 0.67860.






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