Hello Traders,
Here is the Top-Down Analysis of AUDUSD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for
Week 50 - Dec 07
M > Price faced rejection at monthly resistance and dropped for correction, we expected correction to be near 0.382 Fib level on last monthly bullish impulse however price dropped till monthly resistance now turned support and moved to the upside. Price returned back to test monthly resistance again last week.
W > Price dropped till 0.618 Fib level on weekly bullish impulse for correction. Price has dropped to test this level 5 times since September but unable to break it. We can see bearish divergence and expect price to drop. We also see two W formations and expect, in long term, price to drop to test their neck to complete the formation.
D > Price moved up making HH and HL and ended last week with a rejection candle but this candle is not good enough to confirm bearish reversal. We will wait for price to make a LL for a bearish confirmation.
As per COT AUD closed major Long and and few Short, reducing net positions (now in -ve). However N-R added Long and closed Short, slightly improving cumulative net position. We have seen closure of Long and addition of Short in last couple of months, making net positions move from 16K to -11K. AXY strengthened to test monthly resistance again during the said period and it further strengthened last week. AXY is testing Aug 2018 level now and we can expect some short term correction as strong bearish divergence can be seen.
4H> After HH price has made a LH however it needs to break the last HL to make a LL for bearish confirmation.
Pair Correlation > AUDUSD has positive correlation with NZDJPY, NZDUSD, AUDJPY, GBPUSD, NZDCHF and AUDCHF and negative correlation with GBPNZD.
This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section share your view or ask questions.
Thank You
AP17FX
Here is the Top-Down Analysis of AUDUSD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for
Week 50 - Dec 07
M > Price faced rejection at monthly resistance and dropped for correction, we expected correction to be near 0.382 Fib level on last monthly bullish impulse however price dropped till monthly resistance now turned support and moved to the upside. Price returned back to test monthly resistance again last week.
W > Price dropped till 0.618 Fib level on weekly bullish impulse for correction. Price has dropped to test this level 5 times since September but unable to break it. We can see bearish divergence and expect price to drop. We also see two W formations and expect, in long term, price to drop to test their neck to complete the formation.
D > Price moved up making HH and HL and ended last week with a rejection candle but this candle is not good enough to confirm bearish reversal. We will wait for price to make a LL for a bearish confirmation.
As per COT AUD closed major Long and and few Short, reducing net positions (now in -ve). However N-R added Long and closed Short, slightly improving cumulative net position. We have seen closure of Long and addition of Short in last couple of months, making net positions move from 16K to -11K. AXY strengthened to test monthly resistance again during the said period and it further strengthened last week. AXY is testing Aug 2018 level now and we can expect some short term correction as strong bearish divergence can be seen.
4H> After HH price has made a LH however it needs to break the last HL to make a LL for bearish confirmation.
Pair Correlation > AUDUSD has positive correlation with NZDJPY, NZDUSD, AUDJPY, GBPUSD, NZDCHF and AUDCHF and negative correlation with GBPNZD.
This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section share your view or ask questions.
Thank You
AP17FX