AUD has been weak so far this year. Poor economic results overall shows a pretty bearish sentiment against AUD.
However, it seems buyers have started getting active as I see the downtrend starting to lose momentum. It could just be a retracement and if that's the case, an opportunity to catch the downtrend movement.
The current support area of 81.88 was set from around the same time last year. Unfortunately, it hasn't been as strong this time as we can clearly see an attempt was made to break through and almost worked.
Now what happens below that area is anyone's guess but whatever happens just above it is pretty clear. Buyers don't want to give it up. In the most recent data, we can see whenever sellers reached that support, buyers pushed it up before giving back control.
We're now back at that support area and any signal of reversal could show a long opportunity.
Why am I hesitant? The overall trend this year has been bearish. The last time buyers attempted to push it up, it barely went up before breaking support and then coming back to support.
I would not expect it to go back up and test the 84.50 resistance area. But if it did this would be a very profitable trade with very minimal risk. My assumption is there's very little resistance between now and 84.50. I can see some soft resistance around 83.00 but I expect buyers would keep pushing if they gained control around 82.00
We're still a few pips from support but it's definitely worth keeping tabs to see if an opportunity presents itself. This would certainly be more interesting if we were in a ranging market.
However, it seems buyers have started getting active as I see the downtrend starting to lose momentum. It could just be a retracement and if that's the case, an opportunity to catch the downtrend movement.
The current support area of 81.88 was set from around the same time last year. Unfortunately, it hasn't been as strong this time as we can clearly see an attempt was made to break through and almost worked.
Now what happens below that area is anyone's guess but whatever happens just above it is pretty clear. Buyers don't want to give it up. In the most recent data, we can see whenever sellers reached that support, buyers pushed it up before giving back control.
We're now back at that support area and any signal of reversal could show a long opportunity.
Why am I hesitant? The overall trend this year has been bearish. The last time buyers attempted to push it up, it barely went up before breaking support and then coming back to support.
I would not expect it to go back up and test the 84.50 resistance area. But if it did this would be a very profitable trade with very minimal risk. My assumption is there's very little resistance between now and 84.50. I can see some soft resistance around 83.00 but I expect buyers would keep pushing if they gained control around 82.00
We're still a few pips from support but it's definitely worth keeping tabs to see if an opportunity presents itself. This would certainly be more interesting if we were in a ranging market.
So looking back at my setup, had I updated my support/resistance maybe I would've been more confident in taking this one rather than taking a bad one on the EUR pair.
Lesson? ALWAYS UPDATE MY S/R AT THE END OF THE WEEK..