AP17FX

AUDCAD Top-Down Analysis

Short
FX:AUDCAD   Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
Hello Traders,

Here is the Top-Down Analysis of AUDCAD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for

Week 50 - Dec 07

M > Price tested monthly resistance and dropped for correction. It again returned backup to test monthly resistance facing rejection to the downside.

W > After bullish impulse price had dropped till demand zone of same bullish move, we can expect price to continue with drop to test demand zone again.

D > Price closed last week with bearish impulse breaking daily demand zone, we can expect market to open with a small upward correction to test demand zone as resistance before continuing with its bearish move.

As per COT AUD closed major Long and and few Short, reducing net positions (now in -ve). However N-R added Long and closed Short, slightly improving cumulative net position. We have seen closure of Long and addition of Short in last couple of months, making net positions move from 16K to -11K. AXY strengthened to test monthly resistance again during the said period and it further strengthened last week. AXY is testing Aug 2018 level now and we can expect some short term correction as strong bearish divergence can be seen. CAD closed Long and further added Short positions, reducing net positions, however cumulative net position with N-R has improved. CXY strengthened during the said period and after testing monthly resistance it further gained strength last week and is now testing next resistance level. We can expect correction to the downside as strong bearish divergence can be seen for CXY.
Last bearish move was due to strong CAD and not because of weak AUD however now with expectation of weak AUD as well as CAD we can expect pair to continue sliding down.

4H > Price is dropping with bearish momentum breaking demand zone, wait for price to return back to test this zone now as resistance for a Short entry.

Pair Correlation > AUDCAD has positive correlation with AUDCHF, AUDUSD and AUDJPY and negative correlation with EURAUD.

This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section share your view or ask questions.

Thank You
AP17FX
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