AMC To The Moon 🚀 - Why AMC will go to $100 and Beyond
Idea for AMC:
- AMC's price action is nothing extraordinary, and the narrative surrounding it is quite literally BS to deter a natural and obvious short squeeze.
- The price action tells it all...
Analysis:
- The crux of this short squeeze trade setup is that the Whales got greedy by shorting the bottom, and doubled down on shorts when they should have covered.
- Most of the shorts' stops should have been hit in this breakout, but it is likely a whale doubled down on their shorts to defend their position from $20~.
- There has been 2.5 years of accumulation for the bulls, in a harmonic spring (falling wedge) that has broken out, and we are now caught in a bull flag with the shorts doubling down... Even if price does not breakout in this test, there is too much energy to be stopped IMO!
- It is clear where the whales' stops are: above $20 there is a liquidity zone to $36, and above that, $100 is very likely. Above that, even I don't know... 🚀🚀🚀
"He who sells what isn't his'n, must buy it back or go to prison." - Daniel Drew
GLHF
- DPT
- AMC's price action is nothing extraordinary, and the narrative surrounding it is quite literally BS to deter a natural and obvious short squeeze.
- The price action tells it all...
Analysis:
- The crux of this short squeeze trade setup is that the Whales got greedy by shorting the bottom, and doubled down on shorts when they should have covered.
- Most of the shorts' stops should have been hit in this breakout, but it is likely a whale doubled down on their shorts to defend their position from $20~.
- There has been 2.5 years of accumulation for the bulls, in a harmonic spring (falling wedge) that has broken out, and we are now caught in a bull flag with the shorts doubling down... Even if price does not breakout in this test, there is too much energy to be stopped IMO!
- It is clear where the whales' stops are: above $20 there is a liquidity zone to $36, and above that, $100 is very likely. Above that, even I don't know... 🚀🚀🚀
"He who sells what isn't his'n, must buy it back or go to prison." - Daniel Drew
GLHF
- DPT
Trade active:
Today's 13F shows Citadel with +3,927,000 shares in puts, +449,722 shares and + 3,101,900 shares in calls as of 3/31.
What does this mean?
This came after the rally to 14, so:
(a) they reported this after making covering, while using calls before covering to cover more of their losses on their short positions, then used puts on the way down.
(b) they have not yet covered, and the calls are hedging for the above trade which is about to occur.
(c) This is just a box spread type play, doubling down on the range and playing the volatility.
Vanguard and BlackRock continue to increase their ownership, and it looks like many notable quant firms have set up shop (Susquehanna, Jane Street, DE Shaw) playing the same type of box spreads, while RenTech, MS is just straight long.
Short interest and borrow fee still remains high, so only (b) and (c) are relevant to the trade.
In the case of (b), price will breakout into liquidity zones in the nearest future, and in the case of (c), eventually, the bid-ask spread MM/HFT type traders will get knocked aside by big buyers like BlackRock and Vanguard, along with momentum...
Therefore, this is a high probability trade setup!
What does this mean?
This came after the rally to 14, so:
(a) they reported this after making covering, while using calls before covering to cover more of their losses on their short positions, then used puts on the way down.
(b) they have not yet covered, and the calls are hedging for the above trade which is about to occur.
(c) This is just a box spread type play, doubling down on the range and playing the volatility.
Vanguard and BlackRock continue to increase their ownership, and it looks like many notable quant firms have set up shop (Susquehanna, Jane Street, DE Shaw) playing the same type of box spreads, while RenTech, MS is just straight long.
Short interest and borrow fee still remains high, so only (b) and (c) are relevant to the trade.
In the case of (b), price will breakout into liquidity zones in the nearest future, and in the case of (c), eventually, the bid-ask spread MM/HFT type traders will get knocked aside by big buyers like BlackRock and Vanguard, along with momentum...
Therefore, this is a high probability trade setup!
Trade active:
Keep in mind that gamma hedging long does not mean the firms will just cover all their shares... it is just insurance so they lose less in case of the stop losses being hit. Their core position is still net short!
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Citadel's spread about to be broken. Massive unwinding coming should they choose to withdraw. It is this or liquidation!
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And that is a 2x ATR breakout
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Now broken out of the spread. Liquidation is imminent.
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Looks to me like some spread positions being withdrawn:
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"Lightning never strikes the same place twice... but if it does, it will strike again."
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Target 1 hit. 11 strike Jun 4 calls up over 6900%
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11 strike Jun 4 calls up 15700%
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17700%
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AMC Russell 2000 inclusion on the 25th, prepare for some volatility!
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Speculation: AMC will be the next TSLA.
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AMC good BTD level:
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Also a good spring level, should it dip once more:
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Broader market sell-off today looked like liquidations. Hedge fund in trouble? Citadel you good?
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Price shot up quicker than expected. Now reset IV... 36 or 20 are good supports.
