ChristopherCarrollSmith

Allison at first buy level

Long
NYSE:ALSN   Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.
Allison has been getting hit along with other manufacturers due to rising producer prices and steel shortages, but I continue to believe the company's prospects are impressive, with an overall quite positive outlook for earnings. And this sharp drop makes the valuation attractive too. I estimate Allison's forward P/E at less than 10, forward P/S at less than 1.5, PEG at about 2, and forward dividend yield at a respectable 2%. The stock has about 23% upside to its median multiple of the last 4 years.

Sentiment on Allison is mostly positive. The average analyst rating is 6.5/10, up about half a point this week. There's about 20% upside to the average price target of $44. The put/call ratio is quite positive at under 0.5.

In technical terms, Allison is hovering right above an important trend line support. If you set a stop loss at the trend line and target $40 per share, you've got about 8% reward - risk. I personally think Allison is good for a longer swing to at least $47, but it's also possible that this trend line support won't hold. I've identified four additional buy levels based on historical highs and lows.

With everything so overvalued, I haven't seen many buying opportunities lately. So it's kind of exciting to finally see the market correcting a bit and offering up a few good deals for once. Admittedly, I run a screener for stocks that have suffered a correction and might be "on sale," and most of the stuff turning up there is still overvalued garbage, so the larger market correction may still have a ways to go.
Comment:
Already got a really nice bounce from the trend line today.
Comment:
Up about 15% on this trade.

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