AAPL eventually conceded to the RSI divergence observe little over a week ago, even as it made higher highs after my post, the price action was suspect. We are now zooming in on minor 23.6% Fib retracement around 165 as overall market sentiment is turning decidedly bearish.
AAPL is the poster child stock you always regret not having bought at the 10% corrections .. Even so, near term I favour a deeper test of the more meaningful 38.2% correction in the high150s. That is where we have to reassess the medium to longer term outlook as well. At first glance, sub 100 is technically realistic BUT for us to get there we need something special.
We need a sharp rise, not so much of the nominal yields in the US, but of the real yields. Now that seems to be the direction of travel we 're heading with crude, shipping costs and agricultural commodities falling.
I do not anticipate much fireworks from J Powell later this week but I do expect him to signal that there is no realistic scenario where the Fed would quickly reverse direction from the hard work it is still to complete this year. In other words, the 'humpiness' of the ED curve is vulnerable and should the Fed wish to signal that this is an incorrect market perspective it can do so very easily. Even if that in itself doesn't signal additional tightening, we have to put it in the perspective of pivot 'hopium' out there. Take that away and equity longs will lose an important element of their bull case for 2023.
In this context, I remain wary about AAPL. It really does look different this time imo.
AAPL is the poster child stock you always regret not having bought at the 10% corrections .. Even so, near term I favour a deeper test of the more meaningful 38.2% correction in the high150s. That is where we have to reassess the medium to longer term outlook as well. At first glance, sub 100 is technically realistic BUT for us to get there we need something special.
We need a sharp rise, not so much of the nominal yields in the US, but of the real yields. Now that seems to be the direction of travel we 're heading with crude, shipping costs and agricultural commodities falling.
I do not anticipate much fireworks from J Powell later this week but I do expect him to signal that there is no realistic scenario where the Fed would quickly reverse direction from the hard work it is still to complete this year. In other words, the 'humpiness' of the ED curve is vulnerable and should the Fed wish to signal that this is an incorrect market perspective it can do so very easily. Even if that in itself doesn't signal additional tightening, we have to put it in the perspective of pivot 'hopium' out there. Take that away and equity longs will lose an important element of their bull case for 2023.
In this context, I remain wary about AAPL. It really does look different this time imo.