Below 0.8350 momentum accelerates
Rationale: Anticipating a Truss win, her proposed loose fiscal / tight monetary policy agenda is favourable for GBP as Euro faces ongoing fragmentation risks.
Tentative technical signals in MA and RSI, as per chart
Over the past 2yrs, 10y It US has move little over 175Bp higher. It coincided with the Euro dropping over20BF and EurChf breaking down to well below parity again. Note, that it took a similar jump in rate spread in 2012 to accelerate the inverse correlation to EurUsd.
If It 10y breaks above 100bp vs 10y US Italy will need to sign up to an ESM program as the ECB...
Following up on earlier heads up on copper.
Battling here (hourly) with the 38.2% Fibo retracement but it also, possibly, seems to be building on an I-shs. Somewhat remarkable given the context of risk markets. Next hurdle is test of the 50% Fibo at 3.85 but the size of that I-shs suggests we may be in for a test of 4.25 (close to 75% retracement)
AAPL eventually conceded to the RSI divergence observe little over a week ago, even as it made higher highs after my post, the price action was suspect. We are now zooming in on minor 23.6% Fib retracement around 165 as overall market sentiment is turning decidedly bearish.
AAPL is the poster child stock you always regret not having bought at the 10% corrections...
Nasdaq enjoyed a short squeeze BTC never had but for general risk sentiment I wouldn't want to ignore this sudden -6.7% drop in BTC this am. MACD turning over has been a good indicator for medium term follow through price action. 1st Fibo retracement on NQ1 13112, more meaningful 38% retracement 12.722, or roughly a 1000 points correction from recent high
Cable set to be falling back in to the well established, 8BF wide, down channel. It is currently negotiation the mid way point on the hourly Pitchfork. If this snaps, follow through to the 1.1760 low may happen very quickly.Meanwhile, 12 months cable fx swap moved -7bp today to +45bp, moving towards discount as forward selling of Sterling appears to be...
Below 1.1950 Cable falls back in to its established down channel. Psychologically, this tends to be very disappointing for GBP longs who traded the break out. Once this break out turns out to be a false, we tend to see a very swift follow through price action to the opposite end of the established channel. Here we are first looking for the recent 1.1760 low to be...
On it own, copper is near completion of a rev s-h-s targeting $400 area, and that may be enough technical justification to go long here, hoping for the imminent break out.
Look at it vs S+P and you see there is already a lot more optimism building in the (US) equity markets and I guess that makes sense, as China is facing great difficulties and Europe is equally...
Since 2004 AAPL has only broken its 50M MA once and that was during the GFC of 08. It had 3 subsequent attempts but each time the 50m MA held.
As AAPL is at risk of becoming entangled in the US / China / Taiwan conflict, it's share price is at risk of making another attempt for the 50m MA, close to $100.
As posted earlier on the short term chart, AAPL shows...
Apple is at risk of being squeezed between US and Chinese tensions. Further, following NFP the Fed 'Pivot' is off and 75bps for Sep followed by 50bps in Nov and Dec meetings are back on.
The RSI divergence is strong and the entire mover from low $150s to latest highs is suspect imo.
In the short term, expect a test of high 150s again, where we find 100hr...
