Herein is the monthly chart of the /6M Futures contract. It has been noted that since it has been traded, it is pretty obvious that the bears have been in control. At this time, I am far from debating against it. What I am exploring is a technical analyses of the next upcoming crash and an a mild guess of when that might happen.
I want to bring your attention to one of its major crashes that occurred in Aug 2008. Notice the total loss of value of ~36% of its value during that span. While it was a devastating move for the peso, look at the recovery which reached to 0.618 line of the Fibonacci retracement. If you notice, you can see that the newly formed 100-SMA serves as a resistance for the recovery and also notice how the MACD line is close to reaching its highest value recorded.
Now, I want to look forward to the Bear market May/June 2013. Indeed, look at this devastating price drop. It is not as aggressive at the Aug 2008 but we lost a value of ~46%. If you do look carefully, you can see this primary trend was started by the resistance to 100 SMA which indicates a strong significance to investors in this market. This primary trend did end with TD Setup Buy 9 on Jan 2017 but rather than a recovery as in Aug 2008, the /6M has and is currently trading in a parallel channel. I would say based on my views of the technicals, I would expect the /6M Futures to trade within this channel for the rest or to the end of the year. Therefore, I will be placing a short order at the 0.0584 price line should the /6M Futures ever get to that line and then buying back prior to its lowest low. There is a strong case to pay attention to this contract close starting in June 2020. There is a case in which price action could be Bullish and then reach the 100 SMA line and well as TDST from May 2016 which is of particular significance as that TD Setup count ended the bearish primary trend and also the exhaustion of the MACD line. I would expect at that point another rejection from the resistance and to see the start of another long bearish trend which could be very profitable for short sellers.
I want to bring your attention to one of its major crashes that occurred in Aug 2008. Notice the total loss of value of ~36% of its value during that span. While it was a devastating move for the peso, look at the recovery which reached to 0.618 line of the Fibonacci retracement. If you notice, you can see that the newly formed 100-SMA serves as a resistance for the recovery and also notice how the MACD line is close to reaching its highest value recorded.
Now, I want to look forward to the Bear market May/June 2013. Indeed, look at this devastating price drop. It is not as aggressive at the Aug 2008 but we lost a value of ~46%. If you do look carefully, you can see this primary trend was started by the resistance to 100 SMA which indicates a strong significance to investors in this market. This primary trend did end with TD Setup Buy 9 on Jan 2017 but rather than a recovery as in Aug 2008, the /6M has and is currently trading in a parallel channel. I would say based on my views of the technicals, I would expect the /6M Futures to trade within this channel for the rest or to the end of the year. Therefore, I will be placing a short order at the 0.0584 price line should the /6M Futures ever get to that line and then buying back prior to its lowest low. There is a strong case to pay attention to this contract close starting in June 2020. There is a case in which price action could be Bullish and then reach the 100 SMA line and well as TDST from May 2016 which is of particular significance as that TD Setup count ended the bearish primary trend and also the exhaustion of the MACD line. I would expect at that point another rejection from the resistance and to see the start of another long bearish trend which could be very profitable for short sellers.