skitrader

skitrader Updated 

What if I told you that there is a method to project not only the targets for the next move in the NASDAQ100, but also the timing? In this post I will present my case for a likely move up, suggest where it will go, and provide a technique for identifying when the move is about to start. First a request. If you find this useful, please hit the like button and...

skitrader Updated 

With the breakout today, the Nasdaq has confirmed a Wyckoff accumulation structure that started 19th May. The above chart provides my Wyckoff P&F targets, starting with the most conservative and getting successfully more aggressive. Note that the final higher target has not yet been taken. I will add this after the Wyckoff Backup event has occurred, which is a...

skitrader Updated 

The rapid narrowing of high yield spreads over the last 3 days supports the idea of a significant short-term rally in the S&P500. In the chart above, the top panel shows SPY over the last 1.5 years. The center panel tracks US high yield spreads as captured by the HYGH ETF (iShares Interest Rate Hedged High Yield Bond). This ETF tracks the high yield bond ETF,...

skitrader Updated 

The above chart is a summary of my short-term P&F targets for $NQ. These targets are actually clusters of targets taken from recent distributional patterns that are visible on the 5 minute P&F chart, shown below (click to expand): The Point & Figure chart spans just over a week, from May 15th. Being volatility adjusted, a P&F chart captures trading range...

skitrader

Last week, I published a chart that suggested that the market (SPY) was about to enter capitulation mode. The signal was that the rate of change of high yield spreads (bottom panel) had crossed above a level that in 2008, 2011 and 2020 signaled capitulation. However, the indicator has now dropped back below the signal line rather than following through. In...

skitrader Updated 

The ICE BofA US High Yield Options-Adjusted Spread is a measure of the risk premium demanded for high yield (junk) bonds. It is published at the end of each day by the St. Louis Fed. When it is elevated to high levels (above about 4.5%) it can act as an early warning for equity prices. See the horizontal orange line in the middle panel. Last week, on May 11,...

skitrader Updated 

Firstly, a hat-tip to Wyckoff Analytics for identifying this Meta Platforms short as structural trade, comparing it to the structure of NFLX. Pure genius! Today, that seems to be paying off with FB down as much as 9.36% in extended hours trading. The above chart shows my analysis of possible targets using Wyckoff P&F charting method. You can see that the...

skitrader Updated 

This Point and Figure chart shows that gold may be in Wyckoff Phase C. It is still a little early to say for sure, but there are some positive signs. Supply has been reducing over what looks like Phase A and B, which is consistent with an accumulation structure. There has been reducing supply into the prospective Phase C. If the structure were distribution, we...