ponzialchemist

ponzialchemist

Hit lower channel line and looks ripe for the final 5th wave with RSI reset.

ponzialchemist

This might seem charlatanic trying to forecast 100 year bull cycle but that is precisely what TA lets you do if you know how to use the tools. A lot of analysis has gone into coming up with this likely path for the next ~ 8 years and will not really delve into the "how" or explain but just want to put this out there in public and track its progress. Essentially,...

ponzialchemist

Yields are currently in EW 4th wave correction, this should bottom by the end of 2Q for a sharp rally back to new highs end of year. 2025 will be the year of bear with a crash in all risk assets. Likely bottom near the golden fib @~2.5%. Risk assets also should follow this path along hand in hand. So bullish stocks until EOY after a brief correction in 2Q.

ponzialchemist

A short-term top by the end of 2024 for a 1-2 year bear market in all assets. A final bull to new ATHs by the early 2030's putting an end to 100 year bull cycle leading to depression, which will last at least a decade. The End.

ponzialchemist

From the wave character, looks like X wave is topping for another sharp leg down to sweep off the lows before making a new ATH. Good R/R.

ponzialchemist Updated 

Correction looks done and all indicators look ripe for a reversal end-of-year rally to new ATHs. There could be another sweep of lows set before the Oct OPEX, but right here looks juicy for a swing long.

ponzialchemist Updated 

Fundamentally, all economic indicators suggest an impending recession in the last quarter of this year. But the jobs have been robust and no recession can occur without first signs of weakness there and that's changing now, Initial jobless claims are slowly rising and the latest unemployment rate picked up. To make matters worse interest rates are at ~5% and no...

ponzialchemist Updated 

In traditional markets, especially equities, individual tickers/ETFs/main indices can lag one another but they all move in the same direction at a HTF. It is only the strength of their moves which brings a divergence in their price. This can be a useful tool/signal to speculate when the markets are going to make an important bear/bull turn and also see where they...

ponzialchemist Updated 

During market crashes yields plummet along with equities in flight for safety and also they tend to lead in the decline. But here as we see 10-year yield divergence is suggesting equities can retest ATH once more before the crash. This also aligns with previous market behavior where equities rally on rate pause leading to recession - a "Sucker Rally" essentially.

ponzialchemist Updated 

Yield spreads tighten and also invert leading into a recession and it is only once they start to de-invert that any sizable decline begins once all the durations have been squeezed and there is nowhere else to run/hide for market participants. The 10Y-03M curve is of particular interest compared to 10Y-02Y, which almost always leads to a crash once that cuts above...

ponzialchemist Updated 

Here is a Wyckoff distribution pattern I am seeing and suggest two potential paths before the eventual downturn: Path 1 - No HH but a weak LPSY Path 2 - HH to hit .5 fib More inclined to Path 1 considering the range is tilted downwards and also the leeway in momentum divergences.

ponzialchemist Updated 

BTC looks set for a crash move into the end of the year along with legacy markets. The coming week should set the tone for what is to come. The last bounce which I see as sub-wave 4 of the wave 1 from ATH came at .236 fib and this next wave down should at least tag .382 fib around 7k before we see a larger bounce next year. Volume and trendline confluence as well.

ponzialchemist Updated 

BTC Important Resistance turned support with bullish momentum divergence on 12Hr. The reaction is also strong, daily close should confirm.

ponzialchemist Updated 

BTC always front-runs SPX and other legacy markets both on strength and weakness. In this chart, I am showing how it had topped well before the SPX market top since 2018. Holding this idea, as long as BTC does not overshoot its recent high of ~31k, any HH made on SPX without BTC following should only be seen as further divergence and market in the topping process.

ponzialchemist Updated 

This is my primary market roadmap for what's to unfold this year while I trade ST swings in both directions and will be updated as PA evolves because this is just an idea speculation considering all market factors and not a fancy astrology prediction. The idea suggests a bear market that began at the beginning of 2022 with a wave 1 bottom in October and is...

ponzialchemist

ETH EW Long-Term Count that I am tracking. Currently in super-cycle correction until next year, followed by another bull run - QE again? Something to look out for once markets reach covid lows.

ponzialchemist

There are three noticeable relations in VIX PA that keep repeating in fractals: 1) Moves in 3 waves 2) Retraces are generally between .786 and .886 fib 3) Retrace support is always retested before the actual explosive move. All of the above are satisfied currently and in that BIG zone ~14. VIX must hold here and create divergence with SPX as it goes up if there...

ponzialchemist Updated 

EW Expanding diagonal in making as mentioned in my earlier charts. Currently finishing the X wave before the final capitulation Z wave. Expect this X wave to get hammered around ~4300 region. (W) of the Z wave should bounce around 100EMA back to 50EMA before the final dive. VIX Geyser incoming.