Poised for a rally. Details inside. Immediate set-up invalidates below 261.65
This will need to be updated with fibs for I-II and revised fibs for (1)-(2) now that 16.114 has been broken. Just wanted a record of my big picture for reference with smaller time frames.
Looks like red alt (2). Green count as shown is invalidated but the lack of follow thru rallying these past weeks was a strong warning.
Positive divergence setting up nicely. Few more squiggles down nearer the 50% retrace perhaps. Does not smack of impulsive structure off the summer high imo. The 61.8% retrace is another ~20% lower from here, and below there I would seriously begin to question this (1)-(2) set up.
I'm in small but very aggressive trade with Jun16'17 2.0C, BOT for .50 some time ago, and now Jan20'17 3.0C from 0.32. Already unloaded 1/5 the 2.0C near the last high, funding the 3.0C yesterday. Just posting here to make accessing my picture that much easier on mobile. You would be much safer trading small in just stocks. Pick you're own entry/target. Volume...
Just caught my attention again today. Details to follow below.
Notional placement and timing, just to reflect the big picture for the ideas posted in this thread...
Updated targets and support using my log-fib calculator.
Long via UNG. Need to see resistance taken out with strong impulsive pattern. White fibs are lob-based to match white 1-2 count off the low. Green figs match green alt count within presumed wave 3. Minute cir-i-ii count can't be projected until wave cir-ii confirms completion.
Just realized I never posted this one. I had these annotations on since mid-summer. Should have taken a trade here... But I'm agnostic at the moment, so take it for what its worth.
Bigger picture to trade against with my 2hr idea posted earlier.
QQQ experience the heart of its 3rd wave up earlier than other indices in my assessment. Green fibs match the green circle i-ii. White fibs match the white 1-2. All log-scale. Playing very nicely into the standard targets I've been posting. Learn Elliott Wave theory and fib pinball for yourself at ElliottWaveTrader.net Avi Gilburt and his staff, and plain...
Miss the run up on SPY and IWM? Here's a another suggestion. I'm expecting a bullish run into Q1FY17. These are arithmetic fibs, so my targets will likely be adjusted higher when I get my spreadsheet with log-fibs open. I'm not sure about the timing, but here's a stupid aggressive trade idea... Short (sell) some puts, say Mar (Q) or Apr (EOM), at 32 or 33...
Updated with log-based fibs. White count is my basecase. Wave 2 got so deep I had to calculate sub-waves of white 3 to refine the targets (shown in green to match fibs). Nice reaction these past few days with extreme positive divergence on MACD, several timeframes. Blue corrective count is still valid as well, so caution is warranted between ~61-65 region. ...
I know I've posted ideas on some of the sub-$1 miners, warning that positions should be kept small until we get confirmation. So far, a good start to proving the correction is over in wave (2). The larger 1-2 will add confidence. Retraces may be small in a presumed wave (3), and I'm not sure about the timing as my analysis isn't a timing system. Just watching...
Similar to silver, gold needs to show a more convincing impulsive pattern. So far seeing a nice bounce of the 61.8% retrace fib, log-scale.
I need to see the 1-2 pattern fill in before I'm confident silver has finished its correction. Still, that MACD positive divergence has been strongly suggesting a bounce...
Perhaps wave (ii) was shallower than I anticipated. Wave 3 has a tendency to surprise this way. Wave (iii) of cir-iii of 3 is another ~5% higher. Targets remain the same as earlier ideas. Count is a little different than IWM which seems further along in wave 3. Over support, I remain bullish. Nothing in the price pattern to suggest break-down at the moment.