Neutral for new positions. Three potential Elliott Wave patterns considered. See also strong positive divergences in MACD. Awaiting support to hold at yellow wave ii, or for price to break out above GDX 18.85. IF price should exhibit a 5-wave pattern down, followed by 3-wave correction below 18.85, THEN the red count looks probable. Not interested in shorting...
Avoid a common error with commodity Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) by not attempting a long-term buy and hold strategy. ETFs like UNG, USO, and similar ETPs suffer from decay, therefore not fully capturing movements of the underlying commodity. Because of this decay, weekly indicators such as MACD flat line to practical irrelevance. My analysis focuses on...
Today's price action achieved the minimum target for an ending diagonal into support. A potential bottom, possibly a significant long-term low. Bearish alternatives include a potential larger triangle. Also, possible the Elliott Wave degree count is off by one, which resolves into another lower low indicated in yellow. Re; yellow alt, reference daily UNG...
Primary and Intermediate targets, using Elliott Wave theory, for future bull rally can only be set once smaller-degree minor impulsive waves take shape. Note risk of long-term investment using ETPs such as USO to capture the major movements of underlying commodities. Decay inherent to the ETF's underlying structure primarily accounts for under-representing, in...
Corrective Elliott Wave pattern nearing completion. Note also positive divergence forming on MACD. Future impulsive rally thru 16.20 will indicate significant low is complete. A corrective 3-wave pull-back from a 5-wave move over 16.20 will set up a long entry with stop at coming low. Confirmation comes with price moving higher than initial 5-wave rally...
Bear market in Natural Gas nearing resolution. Elliott Wave counts approaching completion. Impulsive rally thru UNG 13.10 suggests significant low already in place. Note positive divergence forming on MACD (as well as other indicators not shown).
Preparing for a long position in Natural Gas on what appears to be the nearing completion of a major correction. Elliot Wave count shown may resolve on one more low. Note positive divergence in MACD.
Neutral on the daily time frame. SPX is within the target box for a long position to new highs; however, the pattern presented better meets Elliot Wave principles with resolution to one more intermediate low above SPX 17329.85. Red Fibonacci projections represent extensions of green waves A-B, with support targets for wave C of green circle 4. An Ending...
Additional detail of current wave structure in base case S&P bull market. Grey box between 1884-1729 reflects retracement targets for wave circle 4 based on the total length from points circle 2 - circle 3. Additional grey box between 2511-2667 reflects a slightly tighter target region for wave circle 5 of wave III. Note confluence near 400% extension of waves...
Base case is that the bull market will continue, rallying off support. This view is based on Elliot Wave principles. Pattern and projections remain valid as long as SPX remains over 1694.43, the 1.236 extension of waves I-II. Target is a new ATH over SPX 2300, potentially as high as SPX 2669. Subsequently, SPX should return to the same support level...