nick.holland78

nick.holland78 Updated 

Last year's 3rd wave hit massive extensions. Anticipated correction is playing out in complex form typical of 4th waves. Could be a triangle most often seen in 4th waves (red lines), or could be something else. Hardest wave to predict. Regardless, price is back within the target retrace box as calculated on log scale. Took my long-term positions off in...

nick.holland78

My red diagonal for wave 4 has almost run out of room. Over 2807.25 it will be discarded as noted in purple text. I'm still carrying the yellow count as a possibility - two interpretations shown. First, wave (c) of cir-b is completing in an ending diagonal which will be capped at 2825. Over this level, wave v of (c) will be longer than wave iii. Wave iii can't...

nick.holland78

I calculated log-based fib extensions on SPX, weekly candles. Wanted to share.

nick.holland78

Breaking down the retrace from my Big Picture Perspective. I've added white fib extensions corresponding to the white count within wave (3), again calculated outside tradingview in LOG scale. Price targeted massive extensions within this white 1-2 count interpretation, ending at the 3.618 extension, in order achieve the larger degree target for wave (3) just...

nick.holland78

Seems everyone has a Bitcoin chart. I don't own or trade bitcoin, meaning I can be simultaneously objective and ignorant. I can, however, judge sentiment using Elliott Wave principles. I took a look, for educational purposes, as it appeared to be following Fib Pinball so well. Sure enough, on LOG scale, price hit targets within normal expectations for a 3rd...

nick.holland78

Two possibilities are indicated. I've had others and discarded them. No way to know if either of these are operative, or some other. 4th waves are notoriously difficult, thus I'm not trading inside it. The red triangle count needs wave-e to complete with a micro impulse forming to suggest completion. Yellow count would notionally follow the line higher for...

nick.holland78

I'm going flat today. Targets reached with confirming negative divergence. Can it leak higher? Sure, a bit. I'm primarily expecting consolidation into the mid-60s with support between 76.4% and 100% fib extensions shown in green. See earlier ideas linked below.

nick.holland78

I'm moving to the sidelines today. Targets achieved for the 3rd wave. Expecting frustrating consolidation in wave 4 before the climb resumes. See prior analysis linked below.

nick.holland78

I'm expecting some cooling / correction into the year's end with wave 4 of (5). As always, chart notations are not meant to predict timing.

nick.holland78

Triangles are very uncommon in 2nd waves. I've taken another look at miners this awkward 2nd wave (white count) doesn't quite look right to me. Could it prove itself? Sure. However, targets for this current rise converge with fibs for a b-wave retrace (upward retrace), so I've drawn a red A-B-C alternative. This impulsive rise, should it continue as depicted,...

nick.holland78

As long as support holds EFA should extend higher in wave 3. As much as 8-12% higher from here.

nick.holland78

Green and yellow minute counts are variations within wave 3. The minimum target for wave (v) of green circle-iii is reached. Possible wave circle-iv is starting under this green count. The yellow count is presumably farther along, although with the lower targets indicated. I'm still long and holding.

nick.holland78

Apologies if this is hard to read. Smaller timeframes should make it clearer. I suspect an ending diagonal to finish off circle-v of 3. Support annotated. I'm long and holding at the moment. I've linked an older Daily idea for context.

nick.holland78

Gold still looks to be in a probable uptrend, consistent with my published idea on GDX.

nick.holland78

Bigger picture (to keep me accountable). See trade ideas on linked idea.

nick.holland78

Looking for a turn over the next few days setting up the heart of iii of wave 1 in green. This is my primary expectation. The smaller white 1-2 is an outside alternative, but feasible. The white count has miners farther along in the count, but targets for waves 3-4-5 would be lower than those in the green count.

nick.holland78

Setting up for the next move higher? If so, this expanded flat since the new year fooled me a bit. I knew it was a possibility but still, my hedging wasn't on target as I've been distracted with my 3rd child born just over two weeks ago... My resistance and support boxes haven't moved in at least three weeks...the big one in the 30s has been established for...

nick.holland78

Updated for what appears to have been an expanded flat in wave 2. Regardless, I was too aggressive earlier. Been out-of-pocket with my 3rd child born just over two weeks ago. I've updated this pattern and will watch for a solid impulse in wave cir-i off this low. Hold a corrective retrace from there in cir-ii and this could finally take off in the powerful...