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Can there be new correlations between Interst Rates, Markets and War?

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AMZN, The poster child for Discretionary Spending is already showing cracks in it's armor! But what will happen when the FED gets rolling? Stay tuned...

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The 4th Turning is a sociological study of the last 600 years of Wester culture. In it, the authors conclude that society goes through 4 stages culminating in the 4th Turning, a time of chaos and upheaval that ends with the establishment of a "new order". We are in that period now, and the excessive debt, inflation and political tensions around the world indicate...

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Self explanatory. Inflation is always a monetary phenomena...Milton Friedman

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This explains what we're experiencing now or will when we try to retire on our 401K Plan. To put it simply, inflation has eroded the purchasing power so dramatically that retirement may no longer be a viable option for most non-governmental workers!

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This chart shows the pivot from Industrial stocks to Mining stocks. This is caused by the pervasive inflation that the FED has allowed and the not so obvious slowing of the economy that will arrive later this year.

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This candle forming today usually signifies a continuation, and sometimes acceleration, of the downward trend prevailing. It is also indicating a close below the lowest close in the last few days. Combine that with the negative macro news and the picture is not pretty. Be careful as to your portfolio allocations.

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Taking the long view of the last forty years of prosperity where BTFDs and HOLD THE COURSE were the prevailing mantra. But that is paradigm is now over and the new paradigm has yet to emerge. My GURUs are split between A STOCK PICKERS MARKET and THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM WILL CRASH, But Precious metals and other inflation hedges. But what are you going to do? That is...

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This chart shows the next two major congestion bands on the Q's. More than likely one of them will stop the fall. But which one? About 20% or 30%? Hard to tell from the chart and possibly the FED's actions will ultimately control this. But Powell is no Volker...About 1982 Volker raised rates until the Long Bond yielded about 18%. That put quietus to stocks and...

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It just gets curiouser and curiouser. Will Powell act? He is definitely no Volker! About 1982, under Volker, 30 year rates hit 18%. What next: a long period of low rates with catastrophic inflation or ... door #2 - Higher rates and a stagnant or falling market. I may be wrong, but I suspect the FED doesn't want to hurt THE MONEYED CLASS unless they have to.

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The market is stuck sideways this week. Perhaps the breakout will be determined by external events rather than the FED under Powell who is certainly no Volker...

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i redrew this chart for clarity. Same conclusion and so far looking ok; but today's price action neutral...

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The unsuccessful attempt at turning up on Friday augurs poorly for next week's action. I think the BIG MONEY exited at the first of the year and now the professionals will attempt to wring out the rest of the 401K money.

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For the last 40 years, I (we) have invested in a never-ending Bull Market in stocks. During this time: Stay the Course and Buy the Dips worked. But as Ray Dalio said recently: THE PERIOD OF EASY MONEY IS OVER! The new paradigm will either be Zero or Rising Rates, neither of which will be kind to long term investors. The BIG MONEY has already begun to or...

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This chart of the TNX shows it all. Now zero interest for awhile or rebounding rates and their consequences.

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My complete chart as of this am when the major central banks announced tightening.

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Friday saw a dead cat bounce of sorts. Probably caused by the magnificent jobs number indicating a roaring economy; but... The Friday candles in all four indexes stink. The inability to close higher makes the bear case much stronger and the worldwide Central Bankers came out with intentions to raise rates. I would heed this, very very much. Watch out below,,,

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The attached chart shows 40 years of declining 10 year rates. As we all know, that rate is the basis for mortgage rates and just about everything else. During that half cycle the housing market boomed, the stock market boomed and generally speaking, corporations and individuals prospered. But that trend has ended. Thursday I would have said that rates would either...