lowsun

lowsun

Yeah, I'll be the first to admit: that alleged wave 4 is a problem. It doesn't look like a zigzag. And a trendline doesn't connect waves 2 and 4 in this rendition. But 1 > 3 > 5 and 2 > 4. If ES doesn't retrace for another lower wave below 3217.75, I gotta wonder if this is a diagonal triangle. Several people have called it a B-wave low. Probably is. We'll see.

lowsun

Though this SPX 24 is a CFD, its relative moves correspond with SPX and ES OK — close enough for government work. The wave down from the ATH is hard for me to read. SPX could be done, and it may drop to the 3180s shortly, or there could be one more wave up first. I'm currently scalping, waiting for a tipoff. Nothing in any of my notes should be taken as trading...

lowsun

Looks like ES wants to extend Wave 4 with an expanded flat, with A = the recent 3213 low, B = the overnight 3263.50 high and C as yet to be determined. Does ES fill a gap it left back at 3175? Stay tuned!

lowsun

The very short term wave displayed could be three down or five down, as indicated. More shall be revealed Sunday night and Monday early AM 12/29-12/30/19 (I hope!).

lowsun

I'll publish a very short term chart in a few minutes that displays the potential 5 waves down from the current high.

lowsun

It's been a wild ride for SPX since the beginning of October. How long can this Wave v of 3 continue? One guideline says .618 of the net travel of Waves 1 through 3. That would be about 3254. Yikes! But the upper channel line doesn't disagree...

lowsun

Since I've seen some counts that say ES/SPX is in a really high Wave B of a large expanded flat, and the territory illustrated in this chart is an expanding diagonal, and things like that, I thought I'd publish a count that shows that i see: a nice strong Wave 3, following a robust 1-2. This pretty standard impulse count hasn't disappointed me so far. It keeps...

lowsun

Like the Energizer bunny, ES keeps going, and going... Nice steeper channel to the current wave, which is probably 5 for this move. One Fib calculation puts a potential top at 3204-ish, but it doesn't necessarily have to stop there. And even then, the wave illustrated is "only" a third wave. Wait — there's more!

lowsun

For EW enthusiasts, this chart paints the last couple of years in broad strokes. The long trend line coming in from offstage left starts at 1810.10 on 2/11/16 and touches 2083.80 on 11/4/16.

lowsun

Though I don't wish to debate where wave (iii) ended or if the beginning of wave (iv) was a diagonal triangle or not, the labels beginning with 5 of the upward impulse display the only corrective move I could find that works on ES (and SPX) to satisfy both price and time requirements. (Actually wave (iv) met its minimum price before 1/2/19 and its minimum time in...