jjmatsjr

jjmatsjr

XBI just recently broke out of a major range and is now on its way to retake the 200 wk moving average. With many biotechs breaking out of early bases, XBI looks likely to break to the upside.

jjmatsjr

USD just experienced an extremely high volume reversal with many calling this a "climax top". This is in no way a climax top. A climax top is a major topping formation after a parabolic advance. At the final stages of this parabolic advance, euphoric action to the upside is your signal of the final stages of this advance. Yes we had a high volume reversal on...

jjmatsjr

When meeting a prior double top peak, significant and swift momentum must be generated to break past the prior left side peak. While there still a possibility for this momentum to be generated, odds are we don't quite crack this major level immediately. A period of basing would be healthy and constructive here, and while I am overall bullish BTC from a longer term...

jjmatsjr

A simple chart showing the trajectory SPY has been on for the last 20 years. We frequently find basing support along a rising 200 wk average, along with a near perfect parabolic support curve. The green arrows demonstrate that a basing period that finds support along this 200 period line tends to precede a general uptrend lasting 2-3 years. Would not be surprised...

jjmatsjr

Some historical based outcomes on moves from 52w lows based on last post

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Expecting a reversion to the Mean here as we form higher lows in a significant 2 year base.

jjmatsjr

Breaking down my read of the market price movements, and getting ahead of short sale opportunities.

jjmatsjr

The carnage is far from over. From a technical perspective, the weekly on SPX appears to be giving us a massive diamond top. The fundamental backdrop isn't pretty either, with inflation being massively understated. The fed will eventually have to drop the hammer, creating panic within equities. Without involving fundamentals, look how similar this distribution...

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This chart marks previous instances of the 50 MA crossing below the 200 MA. While it sounds negative, it seems a death cross has occurred near the bottom of most significant declines.

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IWM rejected a crucial AVWAP handoff and appears to be giving us a low risk short entry. Notice how price action gave us a repetition of the previous distribution pattern before moving to the downside. That quick fake above the handoff should add fuel to the flame.

jjmatsjr

PBT has this clear cut pattern of a box base with a single shakeout with beautiful recovery on volume. Can it give us a 5th push to the upside?

jjmatsjr

Market participants tend to repeat their actions, and a skilled technician will recognize these repetitions. Notice this pattern of decline, to an island reversal, retest of the pivot forming a secondary base. Should market conditions cooperate, we should see this repetition follow through.

jjmatsjr

Bottoming is a process. The last 2 years has conditioned many to "buy the dip" as pullbacks were quickly scooped up as buying opportunities. We reached greater than 5% penetration of the 100 MA during this correction, so history tells us we won't have the V-Shaped recovery many are hoping for. We likely have at least 1 more down leg before a real bottom occurs.

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VCP forming right out of a base. Beautiful AVWAP defense with shakeouts. (notice how the break of AVWAP is quickly met with demand leading to a snap back into range)

jjmatsjr

High and tight flag with back to back shakeouts. Potential to break out of a huge base.

jjmatsjr

Likely scenario we see with SPY. We haven't quite seen a true exhaustion move quite yet. I'm expecting some kind of rally attempt at the March AVWAP, then one last exhaustion move down to Oct 20' AVWAP. I want to see some true capitulation before we bottom out.

jjmatsjr

Nice bull flag forming using the gap AVWAP as support.

jjmatsjr

If you consider yourself a technical trader and don't make use of AVWAPs, what are you doing?