This consolidation looks like a wave 4 retracement, setting up a bull trap before GDP, giving us wave 5 of 1. Next week should give us the last Christmas rally into end of year for a major wave 2 before capitulation January.
Today, $33.5 puts were high, and it look like we're dropping to the 0.618 fibonacci retracement in a 5 wave impulse to the downside, which could later bounce in an ABC correction pattern.
There is a gap from $32.87 to $32.63, which is my price target.
Elliot wave wise, it looks like we completed a full 5 wave impulse move and need to correct down.
Unusual option for a $7 put 7/21/23 1900 contracts were traded today, which could be a hedge for another push up, or a big drop down.
Max pain is $6 this week.
TME can keep travelling in this channel, but a drop below $7 confirms bearish sentiment and we're looking...
We are moving up to intersect a strong trendline that has knocked us down twice already this year. Having reached the 0.618 fibonacci retracement from the August rally high, we're looking to reach that trend line and perhaps hit the 0.707 or even the 0.786. Tomorrow we get the FOMC minutes at 2pm EST and FOMC is coming December 2.
VIX is about to reach a long term trend line where it bounced hard in August and April. As you may remember, both of those bear rallies ended and the market dropped 20% over 2 months. Will history repeat itself in the next week?
It looks like we're finishing our wave c of this wave 2 correction, which would mean that we're going to be entering wave 3 week after next. Using the fractal from wave a, it looks like we should bottom next week and bounce at the .618 FIB
Based on the fractal from March to May 2022, we're going down to $376 by the end of the week. This would be the wave 5 of 5 from the top of the recent high at $431. Wave 1 ending at $411 on 8/24, wave 2 ending 8/26 at $420, wave 3 9/1 at $390, and wave 4 completed at the .382 fibonacci retracement at $400.
Looks like we're headed to $26 by Wednesday. Tracking 3 different fractal and they all say the same thing. Longer term is more iffy. We could get our big mark up by Jan 21, which would be good for those $145 calls. NFA. Just trying to make sense of the madness
