jacektrocinski

jacektrocinski

Bitcoin seems to have rallied on news that a US spot ETF could get approval soon. While there are classic signs of a breakout, I think this might be more of a bull trap. The trading volume isn't particularly bullish, and if you zoom out, we're at a Fibonacci level that could indicate a downward retracement. It's a mixed bag, but I'm in the "sell the news" camp....

jacektrocinski

The VIX looks like its ready to party ahead of today's CPI print. It recently touched the upward moving monthly trendline and my guess is it moves into the mid to upper twenties short term.

jacektrocinski

TSLA has retraced 50% of the downward move from the September high to the Jan low. I see resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200 day MA at $230. Regardless, I think this is a good spot to start a small short. If the price moves up to $230 then increase short position.

jacektrocinski

META has had a nice rally and a huge gap up on earnings. My thinking is that the rally is overdone and that we fill the gap. This would mean returning to a price level of $152. This would also correspond with 200 day MA and the near term upward trendline. Sell.

jacektrocinski

The trend is your friend and we've reached a meaningful downward trendline. Good place to go short though watch for any moves higher above the trendline.

jacektrocinski

Bitcoin has reached a key point of resistance on the monthly chart. This is likely a point where we will see a reversal back down. Sell.

jacektrocinski

Recently, Ethereum broke through the downtrend that started in August and above the 200 day MA. I think we're going to see some price consolidation and sideways action happen in the next few weeks before a next major move up or down. In the short term, ETH will most likely rally and I see $1650 and $2000 as likely points of resistance.

jacektrocinski Updated 

The market sentiment on Web3, DeFi and Ethereum I believe is overly optimistic. I believe that slower and lower growth expectations have not been priced in yet. Recent FTX revelations have dampened investor's sentiment further. Next year we'll likely see economic recessions around the world. Given no clear catalyst to the upside, I expect prices to continue to...

jacektrocinski

TVC:DXY rose sharply from February to October forming a steep upward trend line. In November and December prices dived to the Fibonacci 50 retracement level near the long term upward trend line. In the coming weeks, it would make sense to see a bounce upward.

jacektrocinski Updated 

The utilities sector is a great defensive play in the equity markets right now. The trend is your friend and in this case the trend is upward. Utilities have cleared through resistance and are setting up to make new highs. This is a buy.

jacektrocinski Updated 

At Jackson Hole, Powell dampened hopes of the Fed pulling back interest rates. The Fed’s focus currently is on bringing down inflation, even if that means a possible recession. In the near-term, expect markets to go at least slightly lower. However, for those that now believe the worst news is priced in, start accumulating for the long-term. The 38 and 50...

jacektrocinski Updated 

OPEC+ has agreed to reduce oil output by 100,000 barrels effective next month. Though the move is symbolic, it shows OPEC’s commitment to defending high oil prices. The price of oil has bounced off of a key resistance area undeterred by a stronger Dollar. Expect oil to move upward.

jacektrocinski Updated 

Fundamentals: Given the political climate, inflation, supply chain issues and post COVID headwinds a long term bull market seems unlikely. Looking at the historical PE ratios for the last century the mean PE has been 16. In the last 20 years we’ve dipped below the mean once in 2012. Technicals: The 200 MA corresponds with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement...

jacektrocinski

Coinbase has reported declining earnings for the last two consecutive quarters in a row. The recent high peaked at the downward slopping trend line which corresponded with a 50% retracement. Expect $COIN to decline in tandem with the crypto markets.

jacektrocinski Updated 

We are at a key point of resistance on the crypto total market cap chart. The bulls will likely break through resistance and continue with the general near-term stock market uptrend. This is a bull market trap. Expect crypto markets to move in tandem with the stock market.

jacektrocinski

Expect to see the Euro decline as Europe faces an energy crisis and we inch towards winter. EUR/USD is on track to test parity once again. The recent rally high closed just below the trend line and then started its march back down after hitting the 62 Fibonacci retracement level.

jacektrocinski

Technicals: Near-term trendline - blue Intermediate-term trendline - orange Scenario I The Dollar's near-term trendline upward coincides with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level from the recent low. If the Dollar respects the near-term trendline then expect a move to new highs. Scenario II The near-term trendline assent upwards is steep. If the Dollar does...

jacektrocinski

The trendline is providing resistance and low volume on the last reaction high is signaling a further downtrend.