cwmetz

cwmetz

A common relationship in the 3 wave correction pattern is that "C" wave travels the same distance as the "A" wave. Not always...but it is a common relationship. If that relationship holds this time...a target of $41,447 for this correction.

cwmetz

Since the pullback in bitcoin late last April, Bitcoin has formed an ascending triangle…printing higher lows with resistance around the $58,000 - $59,000. The past couple days it has come close to the psychologically important $60,000…only to be rejected with buying picking up at ever higher prices (Higher Lows). But back on the short term technical…each time...

cwmetz

WTI has a surprisingly large pullback this am. Structurally...nothing changes with the trend. Last Friday's low of $63.89 is still holding, as today stopped just short of that at $63.95. With the rest of the energy complex printing higher highs...WTI price structure, and overall trend...I'm still looking for prices to head north of $67 shortly.

cwmetz

The EIA Crude inventory came out at 7:30 am. Actual -7.990M Forecast -2.346M Previous 0.090M. Very bullish for crude prices, reacted as expected until it hit $66.80 then slammed down. Overall...I expect the market to take out the $66.80 as we are now recovering. Still...one wild ride that happened in an instant!

cwmetz

Sometimes I just get lucky. I was waiting for a buying opportunity in gold and Yellen gave it to me this morning when she stated "rates may have to rise to keep the economy from overheating". Gold then plunged over $25 dollars after breaching the shorter term high.

cwmetz

#WTI #oil futures has been my favorite trade over the past few days. Technicals and fundamentals are lining up for higher prices. The fundamentals story is pretty simple...we are coming into the summer and COVID restrictions are lessening...so demand will be greater (and likely a greater rate of change than many previous years). On the technical side....it...

cwmetz

Today had some big impulsive moves up in #oilfutures...only to come crashing down twice. And they were big retracements to the 76.4% Fibonocci. Today stalled again at $61.70...if the 76 Fib retracement pattern holds we should see a dip down to $61.20. It is strange to see this pattern off of a 3 wave correction so as always...we let price action dictate our opinions.

cwmetz

We are seeing a correction in oil today...with a bit more to go. Target is right around $61

cwmetz

Target today for the correction is around 4115. It's looking like we are in a Wave C corrective pattern.

cwmetz

#oil has been a tough one to chart. The narrative certainly backs printing higher...though it looks like a descending (bearish) triangle. Wave count right now shows bullish...but we really need to clear 61 soon.

cwmetz

The recent weakness in Bitcoin is still within the 2021 channel. However, if it closes below $52k...it could change some of those so called "Diamond Hands" into Panic Sellers.

cwmetz

The $ES looks to have ended it's 5th wave advance. When zooming in on a tick chart, the ES seems to be in a wedge this morning. Looking for break to the downside if correct.

cwmetz

#BTC spent the last couple weeks in a 4th wave correction...and as of today has broken out of the descending triangle. The Fibonacci extension places the top of wave 5 around $50,000. This seems right on track with @100trillionusd Stock to Flow model. #ElliottWave matching with Fibonacci technicals and the #S2F model.

cwmetz

Bitcoin looks to be in a corrective 4th wave A-B-C pattern. Estimated support is $26365, to $22,712. That is a big range...but remember #bitcoin was at the price on December 20th (1 month ago).

cwmetz

The EURUSD is looking like it is in the 4th wave of 5. The 4th wave pattern looks to be an A-B-C pattern with A and B complete. The C wave target is the .618 retracement of the 3rd wave down around 1.2260. After that...I expect the continuation to the downside in a longer term dollar strength cycle.

cwmetz

The price action on the EUR/USD has been very impressive...showing an almost non-stop increase since the US elections. Based on a Elliot Wave count and a divergent RSI on the daily chart, we may be seeing the reversal. A retest of the highs...or even a break higher is still possible. However, the setup looks ready for the reversal to the downside.

cwmetz

FX:AUDJPY