cwmetz

cwmetz

$ARKK was my best performer today....just an observation.

cwmetz

Last time the OVX was this high...oil went negative

cwmetz

I've been very bullish on oil for the past year. Knowing the fundamentals can always cloud my judgement from reading the tape. Still...supply and demand in the market looks bullish, while more and more people are noticing that OPEC spare capacity may not be as robust as they claim. Less and less CAPEX is going into oil and gas. All of this looks very bullish...

cwmetz

Big sell offs always freak people out...it's hard to stay with a trend...especially when we have an administration actively trying to bring the price of oil down. Looking at the bigger price action picture...oil still looks bullish to me.

cwmetz

The recent move in the dollar has put a lot of pressure on oil recently...as it has been skidding around $80 the past few days. Yesterday's API report showed a small increase in oil inventories and the market is waiting for confirmation from EIA later today. It looks as though a confirmation has already been priced in and only an unexpected increase well above...

cwmetz Updated 

Today was Fed Day and it looks like the Fed will kick the can again. But likely only for the next two months. JP only needs a "decent" employment report to start tapering. It seems very likely to happen on the next Fed Day...so remember the Taper Tantrum of 2013 and be prepared. I don't trade off moving averages...but it can be helpful in seeing market...

cwmetz

LNG has a long history of not getting any love. Famously, in 1971...a Russian oil rig fell into a crater filled with LNG. They figured the best move was not to capture the LNG...but to use it to burn the oil rig. 50 years later...that crater is still burning...and is known as the Door to Hell . LNG has often been thought of a cheap, plentiful energy...

cwmetz

Expect a lot of volatility in the oil market in the next few days. Friday we had JP lean pretty dovish for his Jackson Hole speech bullish for price. Many are taking the narrative that Hurricane Ida will disrupt oil production...thereby increasing crude prices. That is true enough. However, there is also refineries that have gone offline. So it's not a one...

cwmetz

Oil has stayed within this long term trend channel since June of 2020. Today's -3% move placed WTI at the bottom of this trend channel $64.20 If we don't get a reversal here...I don't see another good support until $62.

cwmetz

This morning oil had an aggressive selloff...again...at $70.20. The selloff was not just aggressive...but textbook. Oil posted a 3 wave correction with C wave of equal length to A wave...stopping on the screws at 67.80. There is a lot of accumulation happening now between $68.05 and $68.15. There may be some stop loss hunting as the institutions soak up...

cwmetz

So according to twitter...$HOOD is crashing while still up 30% from 2 days ago.

cwmetz

Last week Bitcoin had a great bounce off the $30k handle....and it was impressive! Since then, I've seen a lot of bitcoiners on twitter calling for the 6-figure bitcoin soon. I tend to agree that it will go there...and much higher over time. However, before we celebrate...a crucial hurdle must be cleared. Resistance must become support. So far...Bitcoin has...

cwmetz

Monday morning saw crude get crushed...down over 4%....with a current low print of $70.53. Looks like the fib retracement is complete and should begin the advance back soon. Order flow looks positive for the long setup. On the fundamentals of why crude took a nosedive....I heard it was New Mexico production hitting all time highs. If that is the news....way...

cwmetz Updated 

Looks to me like oil is set for a 3 wave correction. With the OPEC+ talks on output and the future of the cartel in question...volatility will likely remain high. Yet if this is a 3 wave correction...we should see a good support around $72.15 to go long.

cwmetz

The narrative around copper is very compelling. 1) $5T of Government spending in the next 10 years for renewable energy development 2) Electric cars 3) Miners underinvestment in recent years What this says to me is the simple fundamentals from miners...limited supply would be enough to extend this commodity bull cycle. Beyond that...we have car manufacturers...

cwmetz

Hey...remember that time Amazon dropped 95%? It's okay...no one else does either.

cwmetz

Bitcoin was looking like it based all day today around $42,000 and just broke support. This could be a simple "fake out", as I saw some numbers earlier that showed very little short interest at current prices. However, things change...quickly...and unexpectedly at times. If this isn't a fake out...look for next support at $30,000.

cwmetz

After getting my morning entertainment on twitter...I've seen a lot of tweets like this.... "BTFD!!!" "Buy the dip!" And various versions of that sentiment. First off....giving blanket advice...even if you put your disclaimer that your tweets are not financial advice...you need to understand that many people still take it as such. So we should be a bit more...