carlos5577

carlos5577

I keep seeing negative sentiment time and time again, because the index doesn't fit people's worldview. Yes the rich are having a party but you have to understand what's in the index. You can't short good valuable companies and all those companies have a bright future ahead of them, especially in this environment. I keep seeing article after article to sell, here...

carlos5577

This is not a bubble but its just the way things are going to go and people are excited and jumping in because Teslas are cool and they know once they drive one that it is the future. Not to mention all these things has Tesla to be the Amazon of EVs even branching to different sectors like solar, AI, batteries, etc. IMO every stock is limited by the market cap...

carlos5577

Until stocks like Apple get priced in SPY is going higher its a simple fact that interest rates are low (low bond yields), everyone is still bearish and wishing for a correction. There's still too much cash and until that cash flow is interrupted SPY is going to go up. There's no bubble here, only thing people don't seem to get is that these are global companies...

carlos5577

The Stock market is not the economy, We have an over hedged and under allocated Stock Market with inflation risk on the horizon. The bulls have picked SPY to consolidate their wealth and the Bears picked precious metals, and the investors went with both because everything was undervalued and to hedge downside. AAPL is not over valued, it gives rich folks 6% yield...

carlos5577

Look at 2019 and look at 2020. What we are seeing is the result of the algos perfect calculation of a market bottom because the stock market is now only designed to go up. The only difference is a bigger drop. This whole situation has being engineered to stress test the system. most markets are green the only difference is the speed. The SPY is about to do another...

carlos5577

So Everyone is bearish and for good reason; Unemployment and fundamentals loom over this market but everyone forgets the Bond market and the FED who are pushed by the republicans and Donald Trump, above anyone else, to push the stock market higher. They are pushing the bond guys to buy this market and are printing all the cash necessary to keep it going (stimulus...

carlos5577 Updated 

Think like a billionaire. Right now it's either 10 year bond or the S&P500. The 10 year treasury rate is a measly 0.63% and most billionaires are already heavy in bonds, and right now the market is over hedged (puts). That Economist article opened my eyes. Why wouldn't you just buy SPY and risk some capital when bonds are so low. Everyone is already a bear and...

carlos5577

So right now investors like Warren Buffet are on the sidelines pissed off that they can't buy low, but they will not FOMO like a bunch of retail investors did to go and chase 12% upside in these troubling times. So I predict SPY is just going to trade sideways before more data comes for dumps in prices until Stocks are cheap Investors will not chase these inflated...

carlos5577

Tomorrow unemployment numbers come out and we will Pump 10% probably to get people to FOMO. Sure you can go ahead and do that or you can buy calls till it doesn't work because I don't have any confidence in the market. Right now there are more Puts than Calls on SPY. Until this number decreases I don't see it coming down yet. This now runs purely on speculation...

carlos5577

Many people are ignoring the rally on the NASDAQ that's partly due to people shifting their portfolios to tech and pandemic safe stocks. Most of SPY is in Information Technology and software. So My idea is that this mini "dot.com" rally will carry SPY to all times high again because AMZN, APPL, etc are considered safe. Investors are looking for re-entry into the...

carlos5577

The famous death cross is starting to form. This is the reason why the market isn't tanking yet. Everyone on the titanic is going to the safe tech "work from home" stock. Until these tech companies get overbought then we go down.

carlos5577 Updated 

Hate to say it but the VIX runs the show and I think Investors are just going to keep this on algo mode. I keep hearing bullish investors that they are waiting for another dip to buy more. I'm starting to think that recession is canceled til a real investor pulls the rug out. I don't think that's going to happen because these are really powerful companies with...

carlos5577

So there's a big fight coming where the market has to decide where to go next. The fight will be centered around $275-290 because Bulls have to decide if buying stocks near ATH is worth it. Bears have been getting short squeezed and they are angry because this thing should be going down but it isn't. The long bull rally can be explained by the slingshot effect,...

carlos5577

Guys guys, this isn't a real bull trap. A real bull trap is something that even bears are afraid of; just look at the past bear markets. Everyone knows is going down but we gotta unload all this crap. Lets advertise these gains that you are missing. You see green green and green and the stock guys FOMO and think "ahh everything is going back to normal" right...

carlos5577

For the short term at least. BTC and Crypto seem to be following the Markets. So yeah be wary of such trades. Go and long BTC when It stops this trend otherwise be ready to be bullish on nasdaq because I know I ain't.

carlos5577

Here is my prediction for Spy. 30% isn't going to give investors much confidence because it screams something wrong underneath the coronavirus epidemic. So I predict that the both the underlying financial problems of companies in general and the Coronavirus will line up to cause another great reccesion.

carlos5577

Nostra-simpsons predicted that donald trump would become president and then crash the economy. We should start taking this seriously. Its about to happen guys, Just get your shorts on.

carlos5577

If this bubble hasn't popped yet than this is what I see in the longterm