- the first wedge resistance since 2000 = triangle upside target (met in Nov) - second wedge TL ~ second triangle upside target - so the big bull market end here?? or not yet?
- in 2000 bubble top final phrase, priced closed > BB 25% for the first shoot, same as 28-Nov-2017 - priced closed > BB top for 5 out of 6 days vs Current SPX closed above BB for 3 days. Implying strong momentum - Bollinger band is an expanding megaphone, implying wild swing in coming. - How wild the market in 2000? Price up >6% top to top since the first shoot...
triple top is rare so it is bull chance to break it up and form a megaphone ~ but just look 50/50 to me
- potential bearish pattern and keep on watch 260.5-261 lvl for a reversal - break of rising wedge for a short
-pretty straightforward, when TLT break up from the TL/pattern SPX tends to pullback. Sometimes the breakout is not decisive and need double confirmation ..the struggling prolonged ~ -according to COT spec commercial is net long against the Lspec, so the crowd is betting rate going up
- BIZD leads HYG and divergence gives confirmation of pattern - BIZD currently in down channel - Longer time frame, H&S pattern in formation - bigger move if H&S pattern play out and take times for the formation
- Rising wedge is bearish as seen in previous samples - only lower trend line is taken the pattern is valid - Bigger correction may come if DJT breakdown - bull chance for one more push up, next top (SPX) probably in Late Nov/Dec
VXN closed <2 S.D again ~ BB moving downward so it is sign market seeing no tailrisk (SKEW/VIX), however VXN rebounded at extreme in the past. interestingly, price will trade below the top of the bar at least once eventually ~ so watch for more extreme next week
- it comes to my eye that global market reversed at the top orderly - DAX, Nikkei, Nifty and today Hong Kong/China index reversed at new high and into consolidation - good to monitor if those bull markets cannot make new high in coming
- numerous megaphone pattern in 2017 and majority lead to a sharp pullback - observed a large megaphone complex similar to the May/June setup - price currently failed to reclaim back to the rising wedge and stalled - expect a sharp move when the trendline is taken - Bull can still push for higher top to form a larger megaphone but eventually the price will fall...
-30D correlation turns -ve for SPY/QQQ/IWM - since 2009 only 4 cases - the first sample occurred at low and market turn higher later - other 3 cases show bumpy road ahead. Pullback when HYG hit lower
- some similarity btw 1998 vs 2017 - DJT showing rising wedge pattern - price consolidated and awaited EMA20 catching up, forming a large channel for further upmove
- price could go to 60 zone ( previous supply zone ) - entrancement to 52 in case price failed there -
- Market tends to pullback or sidepack if SPX/VIX ratio spikes - watch for high in coming weeks
- 2550 is important neckline bear want to attack in coming days - Only when the neckline is taken the pattern can be valid - potential move is 2500-2510 which is merely 3% correction from ATH - look for right shoulder formation
- Price gapped down lower for past few days which is being affected by outside-US markets amid aggressive buying is cash market,but price remains traded lower - Bull has to defense the neckline in coming weeks - worse scenerio only (only when neckline taken) H&S top breakdown target around 2500-2510 , in sync with Nikkei in another chart
- short term oversold - bear has to break the previous low to validate the pattern - measured target is 0.618 of the down leg which is the trend line support
Breakdown from megaphone top ~ same pattern seen in HSI & SPX, may lead the market for now