yauger

yauger

We have been looking at JPM for many years and it always amazes us with its nice pattern. If JPM is to be a proxy for the stock market in general, well we are not due yet for the end of world. Actually we sill have many years to go before dark ages comes back and prove the perennial bears right. The icing on the cake is gone that is for sure but the bulls are...

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Markets are patterned. It is just that sometime, well maybe most of the time, patterns are not that clear but when they are you have to jump at them and ride along. MCD is one of them. Just sprinting out of a contracting triangle label wave 4 of the impulse wave that started at the low of August 2015. Since the end of wave E, MCD has unfolded in beautiful...

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I am back and back with a nice chart of the New York Average that sports a textbook ZigZag down implying a couple of things. First we should see a rally from current level with any more weakness, if needed, should be limited. Then a 3 waves down is a counter trend move meaning the long term trend is up. Though we might have to be patient. Maybe this Zig Zag is...

yauger Updated 

Even if in theory we need to move above last Friday's high to confirm our view, it appears the market wants to go higher. For now the right look highly suggest the consolidation is taking the shape of a bullish contracting triangle, at least for the Nasdaq. Last week low was wave C and we would be moving higher in wave D which are usually straight forward affair....

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There' s not much to add to our previous analysis. We believe we are going down in a C wave, last leg of a three waves affair that should bring the index down to 22500 where we have equality between both active legs. If the market keeps following our idealized scenario, expect the Dow to chop its way down towards that target tiring everybody in the process while...

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The Dow Jones Consumers Good index is probably the market that pretty much follows what we thought would happen after the mini flash crash of early February. A series of overlapping 3 waves affair, a counter trend rally, and in this case it sure looks like a double Zig Zag is underway requiring more upside action before its over. Strong resistance is at 632 where...

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We finally got our decline underway. We are still showing our highly idealized scenario but I think the next couple of weeks might get very frustrating for market technicians. When you have the Russell 2000 outperforming major indices in a stormy market, you know the market will throw curved ball at you. As action unfolds we should be able to get more info to fine...

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We are updating the intra-day chart of the continuous Nasdaq index keeping the same count as yesterday. Even if it does seem to follow the script, it is not a count that we are holding with blood in our hands. There's discrepancy between indices. To be honest it is highly possible for the Naz to have ended its impulse wave that started last week at this morning...

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Here is how we see the market for the next couple of days. Current rally is running out of steam. Over or not a small pullback should be the next move of consequence. Support lies at 6940 then 6900. From there the index should rally back up to new high to finish the 5 waves affair that started last week. Resistance is at 7060. Then our expected larger decline...

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The main reason I write on this blog is to show that markets are fractal, an assemblage of fractals that is creating patterns as discovered by Elliott. I also want to show that it is much easier to label the past than project the future. Nevertheless by using other tools, a lot of common sense AND refraining to marry your count, you can put the odds on your side...

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We expected a rally and we sure got one. We can make a case that we are heading back down right now or right after small gain on Tuesday as shown on the chart. Short term there's some sentiment indicators showing sign of overbought requiring a pause to work the excess off. Then we reached the 61.8% retracement and a resistance line only to see the market backing...

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I am showing an intraday chart of the Dow Jones Investment Services Index as it sports nice waves to better explain my point that for one the long term rally is not over. Look at the recent decline. Perfect ABC down. A counter-trend move implying more upside action to come. Secondly very short term, the bulls are running out steam. At best we have a final sprint...

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And we sure got some excitement this week. When markets get so emotional we tend to get better waves and in our book one thing is clear : more downward pressure is needed before completion of the decline. Nevertheless we still see it as a correction within an ongoing bull market for the same reasons as before. The AD summation line has not produced divergences...

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It is still possible the DAX move a bit lower but as far we are concerned the German index is ready to rally along the the Dow Jones. If needed there's strong support right below at the previous fourth wave low and the 38.2% retracement of the preceding 3rd wave @11870. There's one thing that have changed in our Outlook. Even if we haven't changed the labeling,...

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We don't think it is the beginning of long term bear market. Regardless if current decline from recent high is over or not, it has all the aspect of an A wave which are often surprising waves with investors saying "what the hell was that ? " It is is very hard to say if wave A is over but If we see more weakness there's some support at 23400+/- If over or once...

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We are still long term bullish for stocks including the DAX shown here. Last time we analysed the index we had a rising wave overlapping a declining 3 waves affair confirming out long term bullish outlook but we also warned that the bulls might have to face rough sea before sailing higher. The DAX confirmed our suspicions about more weakness with a decline that...

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As in the Euro 50 the DAX told us it wants to be bullish even if we did get a decline. A very mild decline mind you. Recent advance it ain't mild at all. Therefore as for the Euro 50, I cannot say for sure recent rally in the DAX is the first wave of another impulse or wave a of an abc. Just don't know. BUT we do know the bulls are charge long term even in Europe...

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or at least another upleg towards 3700. Last time we updated that index we suggested we would see another leg down at minimum. We got that. Could have been the beginning of something more bearish but recent advance is not only impulsive ( the trend ) but has retraced enough of previous decline to leave us with waves overlapping indicating that at minimum we are...