If hype continues to grow for AI and companies continue to increase spending on AI chips then semiconductors can break out of longer trend. Otherwise, the longer trend might see soon see a short term peak or even a 50% decline for SMH before going up to new highs.
NVDA and all chip producers can't keep up with demand from AI companies.
Whoever has the most compute will have the smartest AI, so demand for chips will always exceed supply.
Moore's Law ends, so doubling of compute capacity every two years requires doubling production of chips every two years.
AI revolution demands more capacity.
Humans can't build chip factories fast enough.
Humans have one purpose: Make more computer hardware and infrastructure for the fastest growing thing on earth, AI.
When the entire world is covered with computer chip factories, where will humans grow food?
If stimulus is pre-emptive, the market could continue in "bubble" channel while Millenial consumption is strong until 2035.
If stimulus is reactionary, the market could crash and recover, while staying in the "optimistic" channel (just below the bubble channel).
