Dax had a rough couple of days. The impulse down continued to subdivide and seems to be putting in an ending diagonal. That would fit the alt scenario (labeled in red with the C of the current 4th wave taking us somewhere above the recent term high at 10500.. but it would also fit the blue count in which the 4th ended at 10500ish and this is wave 1 down of the...
Yesterday was a vicious day for the DAX. After peaking in the morning just above the 10.000 mark, it dropped almost 500 points before finding a bottom. Which today was taken out, before an insane amount of chop ensued. Is the 4th wave in? By all appearances it might very well be. However DAX has approached on today's bottom an important TL - the one connecting...
Well, it does seem that the 4th wave is in. The bounce from the lows around 9800 did not manage to take out the 1/A low and was strongly rejected after tagging the 10.000 mark. That leaves us with what looks as the first impulsive decline since the 4th wave bounce started at 9300. Which means it's safe to assume that the 4th wave is in and we are now in the 5th...
The reaction post FED was a bit unexpected, at least for me. All indices ramped up (dax not so much actually) and then reversed with conviction. The big question now is - what's next? Is this choppy 4th wave finally over? A look at the daily provides some clues. The peak of the bounce was just above the 50% Fib retrace, while the decline from there looks like...
Dax broke the 2 previously mentioned TLs with authority. But another "sneaky" TL came to the rescue. Next hour will be telling. If the hourly bar manages to finish above, we could see another bounce here. The pattern is very choppy here, so it's difficult to tell once it ends, but usually playing the edges can be quite lucrative, with the right stops in place.
The triangle played out, although not exactly how I expected. It seems I had anticipated a wave there, and the last d wave was not complete at the time. So dax made another high between the previous 2 highs, then a low between the previous 2 lows, before finally completing the triangle with the huge upwards burst after FOMC. What is interesting now is that after...
Dax looks like putting in a triangle on the 15min chart. whichever breaks first will pave the way, if the triangle is indeed what's happening. Certainly looks like it given that all waves were 3s..
After the breakout which I indicated, dax staged a nice rally, which undershot the upper blue TL by about 40 points. Looking at the waves on the hourly chart it seems we had an impulse down from the peak of the current move, around 10500, and what looks like an expanded flar that was extremely choppy. I would've been tempted to say that's it for the bounce and...
The break out of the 2nd TL I indicated proved to be the real deal. Dax spike upwards and got withing 4-50 points of the upper blue TL before fading back down. For the ones who went long on the breakout it proved to be quite lucrative :) Big question is - what now? The undershoot of the TL might be it for this bounce and 4th wave. Although I believe we will not...
It looks like this wave wants to chop everyone... It broke 3 times today below the blue TL, but reversed every time. The red TL is no longer important, it was finally overtaken, but the purple TL I highlighted this morning contained all rallies so far, except for brief spikes. Once that goes bulls might get some hope to get to the upper blue TL around 10380ish....
The dax threw a head fake yesterday in a very choppy session. It broke the lower trend line briefly (just a spike on the hourly) and then reversed strongly to take out the upper TL (red one in the chart) in just 2 hours. That was again reversed - see the 2 head-fakes pointed out with the red arrows. Now it seems only time is working for the bulls which finally...
On the hourly it seems DAX is caught between opposing forces. The 2nd TL held (blue one - mentioned in my previous post) and we had a nice rally up to a quite recent downtrending TL, which also held. Decision time is coming up quickly. Which TL will break will define the short term trend. Good luck out there!
As previously warned, once the 1st TL was broken the 2nd one comes up fast. Down trend looks back, but this is still a chop zone, so risk management must be paramount. Choppy 4th waves can chop a lot of accounts. GL to your trades!
As previously warned the dax looked like a complete A-B-C off the lows. After what looks like an impulsive wave off the highs, we had a rebound which was now almost completely retraced. DAX is testing an interesting TL which held the first impulse down from highs.. if we break that the lower TL comes into focus. Below that the blue B wave low is last line of...
Well, just when we proclaimed that the triangle played out and it broke above, the market pulled a fast one and busted the pattern. I have to admit it was very sneaky to make it look like a triangle up until the last moment.. I guess I should've been more suspicious of the (presumed) very short e wave... Anyway, given the subsequent strong decline, we now know...
The triangle I highlighted yesterday played out. The DAX rallied, came within 10 points of the upper trend line and then retreated a bit. The retreat of wave e of the triangle was very small, it undershot the lower TL by a lot, but that can happen. Now that we have the triangle break-out, the direction is up. We need to complete a 5 wave impulse to finish the C...
No major movement since the last update. We seem to be still in a wave 4 correction, which dies it's best to be as choppy as can be. Apart from the previous scenarios (either that 4 is in and we started the 5th wave of this 3rd down), dax started building what looks like a triangle, with higher lows and lower highs. That triangle can either be wave b of the...