alx13

alx13

SPX looks like is putting in a 4th wave, with 5 down still needed to finish a potential impulse off the 3912 high. Once that is done there should be an ABC bounce and then an even larger decline. for now likely lower lows coming, once today's LOD is taken out, we'll just have to watch for signs the full 5 finishes and then short the ABC bounce.

alx13

Bulls did win the battle today and moved close to invalidate the bear nest and potentially make the WXYXZ pattern as complete. I am still suspect as the last wave down (off the 4653ish high) even though it is a 3 waver (Friday's low broke the 1st of Dec low), wave 3/C is too short. Normally the 3rd wave is the strongest even if it's a C wave, so having the C...

alx13

The market has been making lower lows and lower highs since the ATH, but what is adding to the uncertainty is the fact that all these waves have been overlapping. Now normally that doesn't happen in Elliot Waves, unless we are seeing a Diagonal pattern (either ending or leading). The other situation when waves overlap is when they are a series of 1-2 waves (nested...

alx13

SPX is at an important junction here. If it can sustain the breakout above the upper black TL, then this could accelerate higher going fwd. If SPX whipsaws the upper black TL and turns back down from here, then the ED (ending diagonal) would be gaining weight. Next few days look key and will set the intermediate term direction. Trade safe!

alx13

ETH had a huge plunge from the psychological 4k level. That was to be expected, as the RSI on all timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly) was getting into nose-bleed teritorry and needed to cool off. The big question now is - did we start the bear or does the bull still have some legs? Technically we are already in a bear market as ETH dropped about 50% (technical...

alx13

Dollar seems to be putting in a bottom in earnest. Normally one more pullback head-fake should happen to shake out all weak hands and draw in the last of the $ bears. But if it breaks the green TL in earnest, that will be even more bullish as no last pullback will happen and this will explode higher, like it did last time. Green TL is key here. One last...

alx13

DAX is caught in a tight range since the "vaccine spike" back on 9th of November. It looks like the classic ED (ending diagonal) pattern, so ideally it should have one last push higher before rolling over. The ED is my preferred scenario at the moment. This could also be just a complex correction with a b-wave high (in which case the lower trend line could break...

alx13

I underestimated the possibility of the market needing 3 rather large waves to complete the 5. It appears now we are getting closer, but still has a bit more upside to go. Could also spike above before turning, but in any case this is a terminal pattern. I would NOT chase prices higher here, but wait to short once it confirms.

alx13

The June decline appeared to be impulsive, given the 3 consecutive lower lows. But because the beginning of that decline was taken out, that leaves a flat on the table (3-3-5 structure). I suspected that from the beginning because the last wave was not a clean impulse, which meant it is likely a b-wave low. This looks to be an ED (ending diagonal), or the entire...

alx13

SPX rallied strongly in what looked like a giant short squeeze and broke the green line (see previous idea). Also spiked above the melt-up channel. So that only leaves 1 bear option and one bull. After the spike above the melt-up channel, it reversed strongly and now broke below it. Which is a bearish reversal, in my view. Lows at red "or 3/C" should be taken out...

alx13

The picture is still bearish following the Brexit crash, but lots of options on the table as of now. We have 3 waves into the lows, so the bullish option is that a simple a-b-c correction finished at the lows and now we should go up (I see this as the underdog as of now). 2 bearish options open now: - most bearish is a bear nest - a series of 1-2 waves which 3...

alx13

SPX overthrew the top TL before reversing and also back-tested that TL before heading lower again (highlighted on the chart). Right now, SPX is testing the lower TL and it is critical to watch the reaction here. Normally, after an overthrow and back-test one would be tempted to go all out bearish, but this market has proved with the current rally off the lows...

alx13

It looks like the market chose the most confusing structure to confuse everyone looking for a turn and convince them that it will never come. Right now it looks like a possible ending diagonal, so there might be a bit more to go (although the 5 can undershoot or overshoot), but basically the 5 can end any time from now up until the upper pink TL. The green line...

alx13

Well, the SPX headed lower and broke the 1 but also the (presumed) wave 2 level. Meaning that the red count was invalidated and we are working only with the pink one. The current set-up is getting unclear again though since the market had a 3 wave decline and then bounced strongly. For the downside to be clear we would have needed an impulsive decline... So,...

alx13

Zooming in to the hourly chart, the (presumed) C wave looks to be in the final stages. The previously pointed impulsive decline was entirely retraced so it is very likely that it was part of (yet another) flat correction, which was likely a 4th wave. So now we appear to be in the last 5th wave of the mentioned C wave. The big question now is if the 5th is already...

alx13

Bigger picture, the SPX looks like a flat off the lows, because the move to new lows (from red A to red B on the chart) looks to be only 3 waves because of the overlap. Therefore this huge rally off the lows is destined to be FULLY retraced, since it is likely a C wave, part of a correction. The big question is when will that correction start, of course and for...

alx13

A huge rally followed the impulsive decline I was mentioning. Considering that the market already retraced 90% of the previous move, we have to assume that the impulsive decline was part of a correction and not the start of a bigger down move - count shown in red - a flat with a B wave into the highs and an impulsive decline for a C wave. Above the previous high...

alx13

First impulsive decline in a while. After an a-b-c up, I expect another 5 wave down move. Interesting is that the mcm long-term cycles started to turn as well: mcm-ct.com