It's been a while since I updated the long term count. My intermediate bearish view was confirmed in the mean time with DAX putting in a spike above the previously indicated magenta TL from the ATH, however quickly losing momentum and failing also to keep above the 200d MA. The decline from ATH was very choppy, with waves which were difficult to count, so there...
After the never ending rally finally peaked, dax had a vicious decline yesterday. Volatility was very high, almost 700 points intraday range. The big question now is - is a more tradeable intermediate top in or not? In my opinion, the answer is yes, but we will not have confirmation until the market breaks down into an impulsive decline (5 waves). The strenght of...
Dax almost reached the descending TL from the ATH and lower high and reversed quite strongly (more than 300 points). It seems my previous call was pretty accurate :) With enough waves in place for the impulsive move off the lows to be complete, long positions should be approached with caution, since even in the bullish scenario that this is a new wave 1/A going...
It seems my previous idea of a bear trap was dead-on. The pull-back was smaller than I expected and the market then rallied strongly. We are now approaching one last descending TL and an important overlap. I changed my count vs my previous daily counts to take into account both bear and bull options. There is no way to tell with certainty which one will play out,...
DAX looks to be in an extended 5th wave. After finishing it's vicious 3 of 5, it looks like it needs to retrace a bit more to put in a sharp 4, before heading higher to finish the 5 of 5. So I would expect down near term, but the recent construction looks like a flat, so I don't expect the final high for this leg is in. Funny enough, also spx and eurostoxx50 have...
It looks like spx is putting in a flat. I expect more downside to complete the c of that flat, before rallying into the final wave 5 of 5.
Well, yesterday the market got close to the TL and then, thanks to the very dovish comments from Draghi, rocket launched right through the TL, never looking back. I have to admit I have started to look short way too early, but never jumped in since we never had an impulsive decline telling the story. So at least I was not rolled over. Now, DAX is coming to the...
Well, the HnS pattern proved to be a fake one. Dax never started to head lower and just ramped higher after that correction. Typical for a big wave 4, which finished right about where the 4 of an extended wave 3 finished. So that would put us in the final 5th wave. A look at the daily shows that we are getting close to the TL I pointed toward back when DAX was...
In my previous idea I was suggesting that 2 scenarios are on the table - either we topped out the 3/C, or the correction was leading to another bounce. Those are still valid, despite the fact that we dropped and bounced. Possible HnS pattern is lining up on the hourly. I the rally tops in this general vicinity, I would keep an eye out for that. Necline is close...
The arrow posted in my previous article pretty much painted the way forward. Today is the first day in which DAX had a more pronounced decline. The big question is: is the bounce now over or is there anothe leg up still to come? Well, DAX undershot the blue TL which was a perfect world target, so to say. It reversed from close to the 10200 level. And although the...
Not too much to add on the daily. Dax has been following the arrow market in my previous post since testing that all important trend line. On the hourly, we can see that the purple trend line indicated on my previous post - "interesting TL coming up" proved to be very significant. The break generated an impulse higher, then the price came back down and we had a...
Today I had a look on the daily chart and surprise surprise.. Back on September 23 I posted the idea "DAX - bounce approaching" and the red line pretty much perfectly. With a lot of wild swings, sure, but for a swing trade, it would've been good for about 4-500 points :) I mention that I only moved the red arrow to the right so that you can see what actually...
It seems that the correction which happened yesterday was only part of the current bounce. Probably a wave 4, since if it would be wave 2, it would mean 3/C would finish a LOT higher. What is interesting is that after resuming the uptrend, DAX met an interesting trend line which stopped it in it's tracks - the purple line shown. Right now this nested wave up can...
The lines I drew in my previous 2 posts played out pretty much as expected. The 2/B was a bit sharper and shook-off quite a few traders on both sides, I'm sure, but bigger picture we had 5 waves up and 3 down. The big question now is if the 3/C is done at the recent high or still has another high to make. So far this wave has been very sharp and nested, so it's...
I mention that since I drew the arrows in my previous idea in the morning I didn't move them at all. Pretty accurate I would say, right? :) Anyhow, the question now is - where do we go from here. Well, we should go up quite a bit in my opinion. Even though the vicious decline from today looks like only 1 wave (the a of the a-b-c), it already retraced more than...
The diagonal proved to be a fake-out, but after taking the presumed ED lows at the time, DAX managed to stage a strong rally, which looks clearly impulsive - 5 waves. Now that tells us that after an a-b-c- retrace, dax should go higher at least in another impulse wave. The current wave looks to be in it's final 5th, and this could extend, but the text-book target...
The DAX looked like setting an ending diagonal, however quite close to the previous corrective wave it stopped and was brutally reversed. Today DAX took out the previous lows, which means the ED is invalidated and the rally off the lows, even though was a 5 wave impulse, was most likely just a C wave of a flat and part of a sub-wave 4 correction. The dax also...
As previously warned the ED played out. The bottom TL held and we had a close to 300 point rally from there after the cash closed yesterday. Today DAX broke out of the upper descending TL, back-tested and held. This looks like a break-out! If we get another retrace to better test that TL later today that would be gift long, in my opinion. Good luck out there!