Trade_with_confidence

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In early 2022, the weekly RSI fell below the 50 level and remained primarily below that level until early this year. During this time, the RSI 50-level acted as resistance few times. On Friday, RSI closed just above the 50-level. Will this level now act as support? If not, consequences could be severe. In 2022, while RSI remained below the 50-level, prices...

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Gold has been under pressure in February as $DXY moved higher. Now gold finds itself at an important juncture with weekly RSI at the 50-level. This level acted as resistance in 2022. Will this level now act as support? Also notice that when weekly RSI remained below the 50-level in 2022, price action was weak – so lot at stake for gold.

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Looks like short term sentiment is changing from positive to negative as daily RSI dipped below 50. In the past when RSI fell below 50, this was accompanied by a large red candle such as the one last Friday, So long as RSI remained below 50 previously, price action was negative as highlighted Next level to watch is around 14,900.

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MSFT – another mega tech stock closed below its 200-day SMA on Friday. The daily RSI also closed below the 50-level. Previously when daily RSI remained below 50 level we saw weak price action as highlighted.

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AAPL closed just below the 200-day SMA. Additionally, looks like momentum is shifting from positive to negative as daily RSI closed below the 50-level. When RSI remains below 50, we generally see weak price action, as highlighted in green.

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TSLA - approaching an area of congestion around $220 from May-July 2022. If it's able to clear this level (there's a good chance that it will), next major challenge zone is around $260, the mid-point of the Nov 21 high ($414.50) and early Jan 23 low (101.81).

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NET – some observation Since reaching a low of around $40 early this year, stock has been rebounding. Tested the $40 level couple of times. That level is likely to act as a strong support. Additionally, since its IPO (2019) to Dec 2021, the weekly RSI remained above 50 (highlighted); prices generally moved higher during this period. In Dec 2021, RSI dipped...

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BTC - weekly perspective putting in a higher weekly low. Weekly RSI moved above 50, MACD is heading towards the zero line. Weekly price action + momentum indicators are looking much better than anything in 2022. Next big challenge area is around 28,750, a support zone from June/July 2021. A test of that level is possible

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$ENPH - lost 50% of the move from Jan 2022 low to Nov 22 high, around $225 level. Made an attempt to reclaim this level this week but big rejection. A weekly close below $201.68 is potentially negative. Weekly MACD crossing below the zero line - not a good sign. Levels to watch on the downside is around $197.50, $167.50

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The mid-point from Nov 2021 high and Jan 2023 low is around $259. It's possible for $TSLA to reach that level but there's some congestion around $220 from May-Jul 2022. Once through there, odds of reaching $259 would be high.

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When $SPY was recovering from Covid sell-off, weekly MACD crossed above the zero line around Jul 2020; weekly RSI was already above 50 and stayed above that level until early Jan 2022. When weekly RSI is above 50 and MACD above the zero line, generally we see higher prices. Currently, weekly RSI is above 50 and MACD is heading towards a cross above the zero line.

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If you split the bear market decline in 4 equal parts (highlighted in yellow bar), you notice a significant reaction at the bottom of each of the bars. The Mar 2022 rally failed at the bottom of the first bar; Aug rally at the bottom of the second bar, Nov rally at the bottom of the third bar, the Oct low at the bottom of the fourth bar. After forming a low in...

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Weekly charts of $PX (top) vs. VT (Vanguard Total World Index - bottom) – fun fact Generally they move in tandem but there are times when they do not. Just before pandemic sell off and the beginning of the current bear market, $SPX made a higher high but not by $VT (negative divergence), leading to a decline in $SPX Now, the opposite is happening - VT made a...

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XLC – weekly vs. monthly Weekly – after falling over 45% it appears to be forming a base; last week’s close was above previous weekly close from end of Nov 2022. While momentum indicators (MACD/RSI) are still negative but improving. RSI closed a fraction above 50 but MACD remains below the zero line. Monthly – line chart shows potential for a double bottom; RSI...

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$IDXX - weekly vs. monthly Weekly (left) - new swing high + MACD crossing above zero line + RSI rising & above 50 Monthly (right) – bullish candle developing off the month 50-day EMA. RSI double bottomed at RSI 38.2 level plus crossed above 50; MACD looks to be crossing after being in a decline since early 2022.

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$XBI – Weekly vs. Monthly Weekly (left) – new swing high after weeks of consolidation. Momentum indicators started to move higher, RSI is above 50-level; MACD is heading towards a cross above the zero line Monthly (right) – momentum indicators stopped falling; RSI is moving higher. After falling from mid 2021, MACD appears to have completed its correction and is...

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Looks like DAX will post a bearish monthly candle for June. Unless it makes a strong recovery, it will close below monthly support around 13,250. All the momentum indicators are still moving lower.

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When % stocks below 200 SMA (blue) reached the level of the horizonal purple line, it coincided with a bottom in $SPX (yellow) previously.