GBPUSD: Bear within Bear within Bear within Bear within...
If one were to plot the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the British Pound, since the beginning of the USD as a standalone currency, you would find one of the most consistent bear trends of the last 2-3 centuries.
If one were to look at the decline of the Pound against the USD from the end of WWII to the present day, you would find an even more defined bear trend.
If one were to look at the decline of the GBP after joining the EU, again, the same consistent pattern emerges.
And today, as people take to the London streets to protest BREXIT, I still see no fundamental nor technical reason to be bullish the GBPUSD.
The evolving BREXIT situation is producing nothing but more uncertainty. Aside from the apparent incompetence of the UK government, the media - as with Trump in the US - and fanning the flames to turn the population against itself. If there is a second referendum or not, it doesn't matter. The damage to the public's consciousness has already been done, and neither side will accept any outcome. The media agenda is not entirely clear until one is aware of the big picture: the GBP is doomed as a currency, just as the UK faces demographics and economic headwinds, too numerous to discuss here, that also render it doomed. A population that cannot unite remains powerless as a government imposes draconian taxes to cover its own spiraling debt, and its pension black hole that was previous filled by Brussels. The UK is also a small island that will surely find itself underwater as the coastlines shift, with nothing but destruction in store for its distressed inhabitants, who naively secured their own debt slavery via the mortgage, in ignorance of any sound financial principles.
This is to be noted, because I believe what is at stake is the viability of the GBP as a currency. It may not last through even half of the 21st century.
It is sometimes important to keep a long-term picture in mind, to give context to your charts. For now, it appears GBPUSD is forming a B wave in a downtrend that measures to 1.15 area. Recent candle structure - 3 bearish tails and a doji - point to building selling pressure and indecision.
I will short on a solid break of the symmetrical triangle. The picture is negated only in the short-term on a break up from the same triangle.
If one were to look at the decline of the Pound against the USD from the end of WWII to the present day, you would find an even more defined bear trend.
If one were to look at the decline of the GBP after joining the EU, again, the same consistent pattern emerges.
And today, as people take to the London streets to protest BREXIT, I still see no fundamental nor technical reason to be bullish the GBPUSD.
The evolving BREXIT situation is producing nothing but more uncertainty. Aside from the apparent incompetence of the UK government, the media - as with Trump in the US - and fanning the flames to turn the population against itself. If there is a second referendum or not, it doesn't matter. The damage to the public's consciousness has already been done, and neither side will accept any outcome. The media agenda is not entirely clear until one is aware of the big picture: the GBP is doomed as a currency, just as the UK faces demographics and economic headwinds, too numerous to discuss here, that also render it doomed. A population that cannot unite remains powerless as a government imposes draconian taxes to cover its own spiraling debt, and its pension black hole that was previous filled by Brussels. The UK is also a small island that will surely find itself underwater as the coastlines shift, with nothing but destruction in store for its distressed inhabitants, who naively secured their own debt slavery via the mortgage, in ignorance of any sound financial principles.
This is to be noted, because I believe what is at stake is the viability of the GBP as a currency. It may not last through even half of the 21st century.
It is sometimes important to keep a long-term picture in mind, to give context to your charts. For now, it appears GBPUSD is forming a B wave in a downtrend that measures to 1.15 area. Recent candle structure - 3 bearish tails and a doji - point to building selling pressure and indecision.
I will short on a solid break of the symmetrical triangle. The picture is negated only in the short-term on a break up from the same triangle.
A monthly view of the GBPUSD will reveal A multi-decade head and shoulders formation, with the 2008 peak being the head. The measured move projects to 0.6.