Background
- Been playing with 30DTE MSFT Options for the last 3 months, and I'm cautiously LONG since buyers always seem to buy at Bollinger Bands ranges rather than let it drop below those ranges, regardless of Earnings, News Cycles, or Open Trading Windows.
Growth Fundamentals
1. MSFT is a major holder in OpenAI pre-public stock
2. OpenAI: Will continue to...
Main Idea/Insider "Alpha": Many large tech companies like NASDAQ:GOOG and NASDAQ:META use Schwab as their vendor to manage RSU grants. This makes me think Schwab is a great long-term investment and will continue to have good cash flow, assets under management, etc.
In the idea above, I present a bull case and a bear case. At worse, this will be neutral and...
In my last post, you could have caught CRV at $1 and rode it up to $1.30
I think there's an even better Risk/Reward ratio at this level, though if BTC loses 20,000, perhaps not worth holding onto it until better market conditions emerge.
I'd like to long at ~0.888, or enter with a low leverage long here at .92 back up to $1
Doesn't look like there are many buyers for $AMPL, a peer of $COIN $SNOW 2020-2021 IPO cohorts, though business results look promising in the long-term.
I'd say anything above $10 is a good entry for this as a long-term tech stock that can outperform in future cycles.
Amplitude Inc (NASDAQ:AMPL)
The 8 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Amplitude Inc...
CRV is one of the OG defi tokens famous for the "Curve Wars" that attracted millions/billions of dollars in TVL during the bull market. Now it is cross-chain and has both L1 and L2 solutions on Avax, OP, Eth, etc. I think it'll do well in any future bull market. The downside is that it fits squarely in the anti-staking narrative which is dominating the news cycle...
Just recording this graphic for the future.
The Nasdaq 100 has had a great past decade, but now we're at a critical time for the tech-heavy Nasdaq index When looking at Nasdaq divided by the Money Supply, news about how the feds will guide the US economy will force people to make a decision about their portfolios:
Do you diamond hand your tech stocks or dump...
When I put the Logarithmic scale on $SPX, I notice that despite a very negative outlook on the US Economy throughout 2009, the trend was mostly up.
While economic circumstances are very different, could it be that over a 12+ month time frame we'll be up again to ATHs?
Log Scale: considers the compounding and the percentage so you can see what the history is....
Bought some insurance today. Let's see how it pans out for me.
In summary, best guess for the U.S. stock market is modest positive bias around the mid-year point through the 4th of July holiday.
Cautions regarding the finding include:
As noted, any return anomaly is small compared to return variability, so experience by year varies widely.
As noted, subperiods...
Feeling pretty good about my previous call on where I thought we'd find support.
This is pretty wild tho because $ONE had such a great runup these last two years I am having a hard time picking new levels. My best guess is January 2019.
Picture below of R/R for SHORT
If you want to be conservative, you can wait to see what BTC does before taking a position, cuz...
My last post got removed because I broke House Rules. My bad. Wont happen again lolol.
Will the Harmony ONE validators Diamond Hand?
TL;DR: Anyone who unstaked 7 days ago will be free to sell their $ONE in the next 48 hours, most likely to sell.
Background
Harmony ONE experienced a massive exploit of $100M from their Harmony ONE Bridge. Rumors are that...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD This isn't really a prediction, but just looking at all the times $BTC touched the 200 day moving average in the last 5 years, and adding a little summary of what happened during those valleys.
Both times it hit the 200MA, it eventually bounced off of it. The first was during the Trade War with China. The second was during the Covid-19 pandemic...
I'm short-term Bearish, but I think the Risk/Reward ratio for ETH/USD looks pretty good in the middle to long term.
aka, You "risk" 15% for a 70% upside. See picture.
If we lose 1700 (okay maybe lets say 1600 to be safe), then this prediction is invalidated.
One bear case and one bull case. Looking at past RSI and MACD trends, it could go either way.
If I were to guess, I think we go lower since our "highs" are lower and less volume.
Possible Reasons:
1. People have less money to buy crypto with. Perhaps because Yield Farming and NFT removes short term liquidity from the markets?
2. Global uncertainty about business...
